A recent Gallup poll found that only 17 percent of registered voters think that most members of Congress deserve to be re-elected, a record low. They also note that years when this number was low correspond to larger turnover in Congress and ask, “Can 2014 be a wave election?”
Our forecasting model of House elections, by contrast, has predicted a status quo election, with relatively few seats changing hands. Is it possible that we are missing something big? CONT.
Eric McGhee, The Monkey Cage