If the 2012 cycle revealed anything about the current state of polling, it’s that, overall, it is still incredibly accurate. … But while polling remains very accurate, because of the increasing difficulty of reaching and keeping people on the phone, getting it right is becoming harder and harder to do. In 2012, pollsters had to dial an average of 10 numbers to get one complete interview. In 1997, they only had to dial three. This plunging response rate makes it harder and more expensive for pollsters to get the representative sample they need.
So given the challenges posed by falling response rates, what does it take for a pollster to get it right these days? The industry must continue adapting to change. [cont.]
John Anzalone & Glen Bolger, Campaigns & Elections