… McInturff and his team at Public Opinion Strategies recently did an analysis of NBC/WSJ polls, merging 9,455 voters surveyed in 2010 into one group, the 7,963 interviews conducted in 2012 into a second, and the 2,532 surveyed from June through this month into a third for comparison. The study contained a mountain of data, but what grabbed my attention were the results in each of the three groups on the generic congressional ballot question. …
With these numbers for 2010 and 2012 in mind, how has the generic ballot looked for the past almost four months? The answer: Democrats hold a lead, 45 percent to 42 percent. Adjusted, this works out to a 1-point lead, essentially suggesting a draw at this point.
Something that might be of concern to Democrats, however, is that in this year’s data, independents are tilting Republican by 18 points, 43 percent to 25 percent. This is even more than the 14-point edge that the GOP had in the 2010 polling (40 percent to 26 percent) and dramatically different from the 1-point Democratic edge in 2012 (35 percent to 34 percent). [cont.]
Charlie Cook