An analysis of 39 polls by 17 survey organizations suggests that, in trying to deal with the “fiscal cliff,” public opinion is not going to be very helpful in resolving many of the tough budgetary and tax issues facing Congress and the president.
First, there are huge partisan differences among the American public on taxes and spending cuts. Second, with the exception of the widespread view that high-income people and large corporations should be paying higher taxes, Americans are divided on how to cut the federal budget deficit. They do not agree either on how to cut spending or on what other sources of revenue would be acceptable.
This analysis, conducted by researchers at the Harvard Opinion Research Program at the Harvard School of Public Health, appears in the November/December 2012 issue of Challenge.
Although there is nearly universal agreement that the budget deficit needs to be reduced, there is no agreement on where federal spending should be cut. A majority of Americans do not like sequestration. There is support for some cuts in defense spending, but not at a level necessary to reduce the deficit substantially, and there is broad resistance to reducing spending on popular domestic programs like entitlements.
Even on the Bush tax cuts, there seems to be confusion in the public’s mind about how these currently work and the implications of ending them, even for higher-income people. It is clear that in general, a majority of Americans want higher-income people to pay higher taxes, but they are more confused about the implications of losing the Bush tax cuts and are therefore more divided.
Along with divisions about potential cuts in federal spending and whether or not the Bush tax cuts should be extended, many Americans are concerned about whether in the current economic environment we should be cutting the deficit or keeping it somewhere near the current level until the economy improves.
In terms of reforming taxes on businesses, the results are also mixed. A majority favors higher taxes on large companies and penalties for sending jobs overseas, but also favors lower taxes on small businesses.
With regard to changing the tax code to create a flat tax, the public is divided and many oppose getting rid of tax deductions they see as important.
These findings suggest that if we are really going to deal with the issues behind the fiscal cliff, it is going to require an extraordinary level of political leadership and courage.
— Robert Blendon & John Benson, Harvard School of Public Health