… [A] lack of weighing [for partisan identification] creates its own problems, which many pollsters often fail to acknowledge. Specifically, many polls have, in my judgment, overestimated the Democrats’ standing right now. I base this conclusion not on a secret, black box statistical methodology or some crystal ball, but rather on a read of American electoral history going back to 1972.
If I am right, then some of the polls are giving a false sense of the true state of the race, and will likely correct themselves at some point or another.
One important “tell” in my opinion, is this president’s continued weak position with independent voters, who remain the true swing vote. [cont.]
Jay Cost, Weekly Standard