… So … on the eve of the first nominating convention, where does the race stand? Can Barack Obama survive the campaign given the state of the nation’s economy?
Our data in The Gamble suggest that although the economy may be growing slowly, it is growing – and historically speaking, incumbent presidents in growing economies, even slow-growing ones, are hard to beat.
Our model predicts an Obama victory in the fall given the state of the economy and his approval ratings to date. [cont.]
Lynn Vavreck, UCLA