Two notable things happened in the recent 2021 elections. First, there was a Republican swing in New Jersey, Virginia, and elsewhere. Second, the polls were off in New Jersey, with the Democrat receiving only about 51% of the two-party vote, after being at about 54% in the polls. A three […] Read more »
What Democrats and Pollsters Missed in New Jersey One of the state’s top experts gets candid.
So what just happened in New Jersey? After incumbent Democratic governor Phil Murphy scraped his way to reelection by less than two points on Tuesday, the question is top of mind not just in his state but for his party around the country. On one level, the answer is obvious: […] Read more »
An abnormal Republican Party was treated normally by voters in New Jersey and Virginia
Tuesday’s election results in New Jersey and Virginia — a big swing away from the party that controls the White House — were fairly normal. And that’s the scary thing. The president’s party generally struggles in off-year elections for two reasons. First, there is often a turnout gap that favors […] Read more »
What Democrats Need to Realize Before 2022
For Democrats, the clearest message from Tuesday’s bruising election results is that bad things trickle down when a president from your own party confronts as much discontent as President Joe Biden faces now. The Republican victory in the Virginia gubernatorial race and the unexpectedly close result in New Jersey’s—both states […] Read more »
Pollster: ‘I blew it.’ Maybe it’s time to get rid of election polls.
I blew it. The final Monmouth University Poll margin did not provide an accurate picture of the state of the governor’s race. So, if you are a Republican who believes the polls cost Ciattarelli an upset victory or a Democrat who feels we lulled your base into complacency, feel free […] Read more »
Republican Sweep in Virginia Sets off Alarm Bells for Democrats
Key Points• Republicans swept Virginia on Tuesday night, winning statewide for the first time in a dozen years and running much better than they did in the Trump years.• The result helps confirm a poor environment for Democrats, which if replicated next November could help the Republicans win back the […] Read more »