Give positive a chance

Consultants are trained by experience, and by mentors, to go negative. There are few more powerful norms among political professionals. When in trouble, when in doubt — whenever, really — attack. … But going negative can be the wrong move. Witness Donna Edwards’s Maryland Senate campaign. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman […] Read more »

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump score big wins in Northeast primaries

… Results from the CBS News exit polls in Connecticut, Maryland, and Pennsylvania show Trump may be broadening his support in the Republican primaries. He still draws stronger support from less well-educated voters, men, and older voters, but he is now showing strength among a more diverse range of Republican […] Read more »

Trump Cruises the I-95 Primaries; Clinton Pads her Delegate Lead

Donald Trump cruised through the I-95 primaries, pulling economic discontent, his outsider status and pushback against other groups into a yet-more potent political package. In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton relied on her customary strengths – plus a boost from perceived inevitability – to pad her delegate lead. CONT. Gary […] Read more »

Exit poll: Trump, Clinton draw support of broad coalitions

Donald Trump attracted a broad coalition of Republican voters as he won presidential primary elections in Connecticut, Maryland and Pennsylvania on Tuesday, pulling in support from young and old, men and women and those who want a candidate who will shake things up. … On the Democratic side, former Secretary […] Read more »

Today Is Clinton’s Chance To End The ‘Groundhog Day’ Campaign

The Democratic campaign has taken on the feel of “Groundhog Day,” repeating the same storyline over and over with only minor variation. Hillary Clinton, in our view, has spent most of the year in the liminal space between “clear favorite” and “presumptive nominee.” CONT. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Read more »

What to Look For in Tuesday’s East Coast Primaries

Opinion polls indicate Tuesday’s slate of Democratic and Republican primaries are likely to reaffirm the leads of the two front-runners, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. But the results Tuesday night will be about more than simple momentum; they will tell us a lot about the state of races that have […] Read more »

Model Shows Clinton as Favorite in Most of Tuesday’s Primaries

Based on a slightly revised version of a model I created in advance of the March 15 Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton appears to be a solid favorite in Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, as well as a marginal favorite in Connecticut. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders appears to be a favorite in Rhode […] Read more »

Racial split defines Md.’s hotly contested Democratic Senate primary

Maryland’s Democratic Senate race remains very much up for grabs three weeks before the primary, with voters sharply divided along racial lines, according to a new poll from The Washington Post and the University of Maryland. … Among all likely Democratic primary voters, Edwards leads Van Hollen by a statistically […] Read more »