There’s a more sophisticated way to understand how Americans divide themselves politically. Torsten Asmus/ iStock / Getty Images Plus Graham Wright, Brandeis University and Sasha Volodarsky, Northeastern University Are Americans really as politically polarized as they seem – and everybody says? It’s definitely true that Democrats and Republicans increasingly hate […] Read more »
Majority of Americans Believe Abortion and Same-Sex Marriage Should be Guaranteed Rights
In the wake of the Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade, 69% of Americans believe the option of having an abortion before the 15th week of pregnancy should be a guaranteed right, according to the newest edition of the Grinnell College National Poll. The results of the poll, conducted […] Read more »
Why 2020’s Third Party Share Should Be Lower Than 2016
Key Points• Despite — or perhaps because of — the relatively high share of the vote third party candidates received in 2016, we expect the two major parties to have a better showing in 2020.• Voters generally feel better about their major party nominees this year than they did in […] Read more »
Justin Amash Could Cause Some Trouble In November
The 2020 presidential election just got its first notable third-party challenger. Last Tuesday, Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, who left the Republican Party nine months ago and became an independent, announced he would run for president as a Libertarian. And while we won’t know whether Amash wins his new party’s nomination […] Read more »
Biden Responds To Sexual Assault Allegation
On Friday, former Vice President Joe Biden personally denied a sexual assault allegation by his former Senate staffer Tara Reade. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team reviews how elected Democrats and voters are reacting to the accusation so far, and what it means for Biden politically. […] Read more »
Don’t pretend to know how Justin Amash’s run will affect the election
On Tuesday, Republican-turned-independent Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan announced that he’s exploring a presidential run as a Libertarian — and Democrats and NeverTrump conservatives across the country freaked out. The logic behind the panic attack? Amash will grab Trump-skeptical former Republicans who might otherwise vote for Democratic nominee Joe Biden […] Read more »