Independent voters can be decisive in elections – but they’re pretty unpredictable, not ‘shadow partisans’

Pennsylvania’s independent voters helped elect Democrat John Fetterman, seen here, over the GOP contender for the U.S. Senate seat, Mehmet Oz. Jeff Swensen/Getty Images Thom Reilly, Arizona State University In the end there was no red wave. And there was no blue wave. There was an independent wave. Pollsters and […] Read more »

Party Preferences Evenly Split in 2022 After Shift to GOP

Americans’ party preferences were evenly divided in 2022, with 45% of U.S. adults identifying as Republican or saying they were Republican-leaning independents, and 44% identifying as Democrats or saying they were Democratic-leaning independents. The last time preferences were this closely divided was in 2011, with Democrats holding at least a […] Read more »

GOP stumbles with independents contributed to midterm woes

… Republican House candidates nationwide won the support of 38% of independent voters in last month’s midterm elections, VoteCast showed. That’s far short of the 51% that Democrats scored with the same group in 2018 when they swept into power by picking up 41 seats. The GOP’s lackluster showing among […] Read more »

How Kyrsten Sinema’s decision makes Democrats’ 2024 Senate map tighter

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema decided to shake up the political world on Friday by becoming an independent. The former Democrat is still caucusing with the party in the Senate, so the Democratic caucus still has 51 members. Now, instead of 49 Democrats and two independents within their ranks, the caucus […] Read more »