Would Bernie Sanders have lost the presidential election?

Nobody knows what would’ve happened had Bernie Sanders been the Democratic nominee in 2016. My guess based on my reading of the political science literature following Steven Rosenstone’s classic 1983 book, Forecasting Presidential Elections, is that Sanders would’ve done a bit worse than Hillary Clinton, because Clinton is a centrist […] Read more »

Battleground Poll Shows Jump in Donald Trump’s Image

President-elect Donald Trump’s public image has notably improved since winning the presidency in November, according to the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll. Of the voters surveyed, 45 percent had a favorable opinion of the president-elect, while 49 percent viewed him negatively. This represents a large swing from the last […] Read more »

Poll Shows Republicans Less Committed to Trump in Defeat

Republican primary voters strongly backed Donald Trump for the presidential nomination, but the party is far less sure if it wants him to lead the GOP if he loses in November. When asked in the latest Bloomberg Politics poll who should be the face of the party nationally in the […] Read more »

Given the choice for a third party, no one bails as fast as Bernie Sanders supporters

When Quinnipiac University asked voters ages 18 to 34 who they prefer in the presidential race, Hillary Clinton was the runaway favorite. Not runaway in the sense of will-Donald-Trump-get-any-votes-from-millennials-at-all, but runaway in the sense that Clinton had a 21-point lead. In 2012, President Obama won 18- to 29-year-olds by 23 […] Read more »

Millennial Voters May Cost Hillary Clinton the Election

… Clinton struggled among Millennial voters in her 2008 primary campaign, her 2016 primary campaign, and in the 2016 general election. Against Donald Trump, Clinton has two big advantages—a policy agenda that polls show largely matches Millennials’ own preferences, and an opponent even more unpopular with them than with the […] Read more »

Why you should be skeptical of wacky new studies about what sways elections

This has been a rough year for pollsters and pundits, with prediction after prediction going painfully awry. Even those supposedly unflappable data journalists have found themselves stepping in it. But it’s not just the journalists and pollsters. Since I’m a professor of statistics as well as a blogger who often […] Read more »

The Message in a Longtime Conservative Tilting Away From Trump, Toward Clinton

In this election cycle, polls have been the least reliable guide to understanding what voters are looking for in the next president of the United States. They tell us who is ahead and behind at a given moment but don’t convey what is going on behind respondents’ preferences. Still, I […] Read more »

Young voters flee Donald Trump in what may be historic trouncing, poll shows

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is consolidating the support of the Millennials who fueled Bernie Sanders’ challenge during the primaries, a new USA TODAY/Rock the Vote Poll finds, as Republican Donald Trump heads toward the worst showing among younger voters in modern American history. CONT. Susan Page & Fernanda Crescente, […] Read more »

About A Third Of Bernie Sanders’s Supporters Still Aren’t Backing Hillary Clinton

One of the big questions heading into the Democratic National Convention late last month was whether Hillary Clinton could rally Bernie Sanders supporters to her side. Before the convention, many Sanders supporters said they would support Clinton in a two-way matchup against Donald Trump, but when pollsters offered them third-party […] Read more »