Cultural Displacement—Not Economic Hardship—More Predictive of White Working-Class Support for Trump

White working-class voters who reported feelings of cultural dislocation or favored deportation of illegal immigrants were more than three times more likely to support Trump, according to new analysis of a fall PRRI/The Atlantic survey released today. The influence of economic factors is both less powerful and more complex. CONT. […] Read more »

A 2016 Review: There’s Reason to Be Skeptical of a Comey Effect

On Friday, Oct. 28, James B. Comey, the F.B.I. director, sent a letter to Congress about new evidence in the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails. Politicians, analysts and journalists are still debating whether the letter cost Mrs. Clinton the presidency. It’s certainly possible. But I am not at all sure, […] Read more »

Why did Trump win? More whites — and fewer blacks — actually voted.

Why did Trump win — and Clinton lose — the 2016 U.S. presidential election? That’s been debated widely, to understate the case. Nominees include each campaign’s ground game, messaging, FBI Director James B. Comey’s last-minute letter to Congress, and defections from the “Obama coalition.” Here, we offer new data to […] Read more »

Taking Trump’s Temperature Amongst His Supporters (and Opponents), Part 2

Last week, we released the results of a national poll of voters who said they supported President Donald Trump in the 2016 election, as well as focus groups of mostly Trump voters (but also some voters who either supported Hillary Clinton or voted third party last year). We found that […] Read more »

How conspiracy theories helped power Trump’s disruptive politics

We watched over the past year as a wave of conspiracy theories infected our national discourse. … Trump’s use of conspiracy theory politics proved to be a particularly ingenious form of populism. By focusing his populist appeals on conspiracy rhetoric — rather than substantive policy — Trump galvanized the broad […] Read more »