The Double-Edged Sword of a Party-Line Victory

President Trump and congressional Republicans have just taken the same leap of faith that Democrats did when they passed the Affordable Care Act. When then-President Obama and the Democratic House and Senate majorities muscled through the ACA in 2010, the bill represented a big policy victory, but an even bigger […] Read more »

Blast From the Past: The Current Political World Mirrors 2009

The party not occupying the White House seizes control of governor’s offices in New Jersey and Virginia. An unexpectedly competitive special Senate election threatens the chamber’s balance of power. Major legislation being forced through along partisan lines heads for a climactic holiday-season vote. Veteran lawmakers of the governing party race […] Read more »

What Democrats’ Losses in 2010 Can Tell Us About G.O.P.’s Chances in 2018

There’s no way to know how the health care debate in Congress will play out, but there’s a lot of reason to think that the House vote to replace the Affordable Care Act has put Republicans on a risky path heading into next year’s midterm elections. CONT. Nate Cohn, New […] Read more »

Harry Reid: Withstanding the Wave

From The Polling Report archives: Pundits and prognosticators, strategists and seers all said it couldn’t be done. Incumbents who garner positive ratings from fewer than four in ten voters and who post double-digit deficits in match-ups against opponents (in public polls) are not supposed to win—and they usually don’t. In […] Read more »