It’s no secret that Democratic primary voters prize fall “electability.” But for all the clamor about progressive versus moderate choices, the obstacles to pulling voters toward Democrats — particularly in the battleground states — could prove more cultural than ideological. … In many ways, what people buy, eat and wear […] Read more »
Is killing Soleimani a game changer for Democrats?
… Hard as it may be to believe in the white heat of the moment, when D.C. is consumed with the story, history suggests the greatest likelihood is that it won’t have any discernable impact. Political scientists Lynn Vavreck and John Sides identified 68 events labeled “game changers” in 2012, […] Read more »
Cruel primary history lessons Joe Biden won’t want to hear
Joe Biden is the national front-runner in the Democratic presidential race. He is holding a steady lead in national polling, and his campaign boasts of the firewall he’s established among African American voters, who may be the key to victory in the Feb. 28 South Carolina primary and who have […] Read more »
Can a presidential candidate really skip the early states? Ask Rudy Giuliani
Suddenly there appear to be several late entrants in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. The most serious so far is former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg who has filed for the ballot in Alabama and Arkansas and who intends to skip the early contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, […] Read more »
Why it’s back to the future in the Democratic presidential race
The wine track and the beer track are back. The leading candidates in the 2020 Democratic presidential race are assembling coalitions of support through the early primary polling that are reminiscent of the patterns that repeatedly shaped the struggles for the party’s nomination in the last decades of the 20th […] Read more »
Joe Biden, Gary Hart and the perils of being atop the polls
On Tuesday, several officials in former vice president Joe Biden’s campaign held a background call for reporters about their upcoming plans. One reporter asked whether they considered the Iowa caucuses a must-win event. “I think we’ll win,” one of the advisers said. “Do I think it’s a must-win? No.” The […] Read more »