A lot of attention has been paid to the problems President Joe Biden and other Democrats have with core party constituencies, including young and Hispanic voters. And there’s been plenty of polling to back that up. Far less attention, though, has been paid to potential declines in Democrats’ standing among […] Read more »
Why So Many Conservatives Believe the 2020 Election Was Stolen
It was easy to predict before the 2020 election that Donald Trump would never personally acknowledge that he lost fairly, if indeed he were to lose. This expectation was apparent enough from any casual observation of Trump’s behavior over his entire career in public life. Trump had even made accusations […] Read more »
Mixed Patterns in Job Approval for Defeated Incumbents
Unofficial vote counts indicate Donald Trump has become the fourth U.S. incumbent president defeated for reelection in the Gallup polling era. Gallup will release its first postelection approval rating on Trump in the coming days. His final preelection approval rating was 46%, which ranks as the highest for a defeated […] Read more »
There you go again
Journalists love to identify turning points–the gaffe that sank a campaign, or the snappy comeback that snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Academic studies regularly find no evidence that individual events make much difference, but the pundits are undeterred. CONT. David Weakliem, U. of Connecticut Read more »
Getting Cartered
Key Points • President Trump’s approval numbers have remained steady or have even improved in the midst of the coronavirus crisis. • That said, the potential threat that the combined health and economic crisis poses to his reelection odds is obvious. • Trump may find himself in the position of […] Read more »
Cruel primary history lessons Joe Biden won’t want to hear
Joe Biden is the national front-runner in the Democratic presidential race. He is holding a steady lead in national polling, and his campaign boasts of the firewall he’s established among African American voters, who may be the key to victory in the Feb. 28 South Carolina primary and who have […] Read more »