Last week’s retirements by two prominent Southern California House Republicans, Reps. Darrell Issa (R, CA-49) and Ed Royce (R, CA-39), brought attention to a growing exodus by House Republicans from Congress. These retirements likely will make it harder for Republicans to hold the House, although in most instances the retirements should not affect the general election odds because so many districts are safe for one party or the other.
The number of House members who are not seeking reelection to their seats is already high historically, though. As of right now, there are 46 seats that will not have an incumbent on the ballot this year, and 389 where the incumbent is seeking another term. The number of House seats featuring incumbents is already well below the post-World War II average of 397 per election, according to Vital Statistics on Congress, and with filing deadlines still months away in some states, the number of open seats seems almost guaranteed to rise. CONT.
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball