Generic Ballot Model Gives Democrats Early Advantage in Battle for Control of House

Results of recent special elections have fueled speculation about whether Democrats have a realistic chance to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections. …

In reality, the results of a handful of special elections probably provide little information about what to expect next fall. Fortunately, there is a better way of predicting the outcomes of midterm elections based on something called the “generic ballot.” This is a question included in numerous national polls asking voters about which party they prefer in the upcoming House elections. It turns out that the results of this generic ballot test can be used to accurately forecast the House seat swing in midterm elections. CONT.

Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Recent polls: Generic congressional ballot