If you want to understand the 2014 midterm elections, remember this simple fact about American politics: There just aren’t that many swing voters.
Many people change their minds over the course of a campaign about whether to vote and even which candidate they’re leaning toward. Ultimately, though, voters tend to come home to their favored party. There are relatively few voters who cross back and forth between the parties during a campaign or even between elections. CONT.
Lynn Vavreck (U.C.L.A.), The Upshot