Forecasting Elections: Voter Intentions versus Expectations

Most pollsters base their election projections off questions of voter intentions, which ask “If the election were held today, who would you vote for?”

By contrast, we probe the value of questions probing voters’ expectations, which typically ask: “Regardless of who you plan to vote for, who do you think will win the upcoming election?”

We demonstrate that polls of voter expectations consistently yield more accurate forecasts than polls of voter intentions. [cont.]

Justin Wolfers, Brookings

See also:
2012 voter expectations questions