Since 1952, Pre-Convention Leader Has Won 12 of 15 Elections

As the 2012 presidential conventions get underway in Tampa, Fla., a Gallup analysis of 15 elections from 1952 to 2008 shows that in all but three instances — 1988, 1992, and 2004 — the candidate leading in the Gallup poll conducted just prior to the first convention (the “pre-convention poll”) has won the November election.

Pre-convention polls are not good predictors of a candidate’s final vote share, but they are useful in terms of simply forecasting which candidate will win the election. [cont.]

Andrew Dugan, Gallup