Scientists go beyond the polls to forecast U.S. election

… In a Reuters poll of nine leading forecasters, the median prediction was for Obama to win 50.5 percent of the vote. …

In 2008, the median forecast of the same group, which estimated that Obama would receive 52 percent of the vote compared with Republican John McCain’s 48 percent, was about as close to the election results as Gallup’s final poll from the last three days of the presidential campaign. [cont.]

Jason Lange, Reuters