Kaiser Health Tracking Poll

The latest Kaiser Health Tracking Poll finds that over half the public has an unfavorable view of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in July, up eight percentage points since last month, while the share viewing the law favorably held steady at just under four in ten. A solid majority continues to prefer that Congress work to improve the law rather than repeal and replace it. The uptick in negative views comes at a time when Americans report hearing more negative than positive things about the ACA in advertising and personal conversations, and when large shares of the public want leaders in Washington to pay more attention to other issues like the economy and jobs, the federal budget deficit, education, and immigration. CONT.

Kaiser Family Foundation


Crystal-Ball Gazing on the Senate Races

Every election cycle is different. Each has a unique political environment and set of circumstances, all of which keep elections interesting. Aside from the extremely competitive fight over the Senate, the biggest change this time around is the multitude of Senate forecasts using quantitative election models of various types; these new players are joining the game alongside the more traditional qualitative—or maybe a better term is “multidisciplinary”—approach that has been around forever. CONT.

Charlie Cook

Republicans deliver another self-inflicted wound

Republicans may yet win the elections in November. They may end up in control of both houses of Congress come January. But in the final week before a lengthy August recess, they have shown a remarkable capacity to complicate their path to victory.

The latest blow came Thursday in what has become predictable fashion: chaos in the House. CONT.

Dan Balz, Washington Post

Battling big money in the Senate battleground with real consequences for 2014

A new poll of the 12 states where control of the Senate is being contested, fielded by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Every Voice, a major new advocacy effort, shows that voters of all political persuasions are disgusted with the current campaign system and are ready for real reform – and they are ready to vote to get it.

Campaign reforms, from a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United to public matching funds for candidates that reject large donations, are widely popular ideas that actually move voters in these critical battleground states during a simulated-debate. CONT.

Democracy Corps & Every Voice

Partisanship Points to Tough Midterm Environment for Dems

An average of 42% of Americans currently identify as Democrats or say they are independent but lean to the Democratic Party. Slightly fewer, 40%, are Republicans or Republican leaners. That narrow two-percentage-point Democratic edge is closer to what Gallup measured in the third quarter of strong Republican midterm years such as 1994, 2002, and 2010 than in the strong Democratic years of 1998 and 2006. CONT.

Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup

The New York Times rocked the polling world over the weekend. Here’s why.

The New York Times made a big decision over the weekend. It unveiled a collaboration with an Internet polling company and unveiled the results of its first survey from that collaboration. I reached out to David Leonhardt, the editor of The Upshot, the Times’ data and visual storytelling site, in hope of getting answers to a few questions about how that decision was made — and why. CONT.

Chris Cillizza, Washington Post

What’s the Matter With Kansas — And Hawaii?

Royal Blue Hawaii and Ruby Red Kansas are two of the most predictable states in presidential and Senate elections. Yet both states have incumbent governors from the dominant parties who are fighting for their political lives. What gives?

The 2014 gubernatorial map features a number of fascinating races, some of which — like Hawaii and Kansas — defy the partisan conventions of this highly polarized era. To understand the difference between the gubernatorial contests and the Senate races, just remember the basic distinction between the two offices: governors act and achieve while senators talk and vote. CONT.

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik & Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Why Impeachment Talk Is a Wedge Pulling the G.O.P Apart

A useful definition of a wedge issue is one that unifies a party while splitting the opposition.

By that definition, Republican calls to impeach President Obama look like a wedge issue — in favor of Democrats. As a recent CNN poll shows, 65 percent of Americans oppose impeaching Obama, including 86 percent of Democrats, 63 percent of independents and even 42 percent of Republicans. …

The CNN poll also shows, however, that the proposed Republican lawsuit against Mr. Obama for his handling of the health care law is much more effective at consolidating the Republican base. CONT.

Brendan Nyhan (Dartmouth), New York Times