Republican failure

Despite all the bragging about his talents, despite predicting an endless series of “wins,” despite crowning himself the ultimate “deal-maker,” despite his unsurpassed narcissism and his unrelenting ego, Donald Trump failed last week.

A week before the election, he promised to “immediately repeal and replace ObamaCare.” Yet, 64 days into his term, he failed to deliver. …

Legislating requires deal-making, but the currency of politics is different than the currency of real estate.

Indeed, there are multiple currencies in politics: a reputation for honesty and expertise, the ability to explain complex programs in simple terms and popularity with the public among them.

In these currencies, Trump is nearly bankrupt. CONT.

Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill

Trump begins his tenure with historically low job marks in California

According to the results of a new statewide survey conducted by the Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) at UC Berkeley, majorities of Californians disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president, and believe that the changes in laws and policies that his administration is proposing will negatively affect California overall and in many specific policy areas. CONT.

Mark DiCamillo, Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley

Gender Gap Shrinks as Trump Loses Support Among Men

President Donald Trump’s job approval rating among men has fallen seven percentage points over the last four weeks, from 51% in early March to 44%. Meanwhile, his already low approval among women — currently 34% — has changed little, reducing the gender gap in approval of Trump to 10 points, down from 15 points four weeks ago. CONT.

Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup

The Death of the White Working Class Has Been Greatly Exaggerated

Ever since Hillary Clinton and the Democrats failed to hold the White House last November, some members of the party and friendly elements in the media have suggested that the Dems have to renew their focus on white working-class men if they want to win. In this view, liberals have become distracted by so-called “identity” issues like feminism, Black Lives Matter, transgender bathroom access, and the musical Hamilton, thus alienating the underserved voters Donald Trump was then able to nab. Underlying this argument is a series of reports on the immiseration of the white working class and its members’ increasing tendency to die. But while these papers have garnered a lot of attention, there’s good evidence that their conclusions go too far.

The latest version come from the all-star Princeton University economics couple Anne Case and Angus Deaton, writing under the auspices of the Brookings Institution, a centrist think tank. CONT.

Malcolm Harris, Pacific Standard

Economic Confidence Drops to Lowest Level Since Election

Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy tumbled along with the Dow Jones industrial average last week. Though still in positive territory, Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index (ECI) dropped six points to a score of +5 for the week ending March 26. This is the lowest weekly average since the presidential election in November. CONT.

Justin McCarthy & Andrew Dugan, Gallup

Lies, Damned Lies and Partisanship

The latest Economist-YouGov national tracking poll includes a few great questions on public trust in statistics. What’s better is they were previously asked in 2014, which allows for a comparison of public views under the Obama and Trump administrations.

Key takeaway: while Republicans views on government statistics have evolved – they have considerably more trust in the numbers than they had in 2014 – Democratic views have not shifted much at all. CONT.

Will Jordan

A 2016 Review: Turnout Wasn’t the Driver of Clinton’s Defeat

In the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many analysts suggested that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald J. Trump because of poor Democratic turnout.

Months later, it is clear that the turnout was only modestly better for Mr. Trump than expected.

To the extent Democratic turnout was weak, it was mainly among black voters. Even there, the scale of Democratic weakness has been exaggerated.

Instead, it’s clear that large numbers of white, working-class voters shifted from the Democrats to Mr. Trump. CONT.

Nate Cohn, New York Times

Democrats burned by polling blind spot

As they investigate the forces behind the party’s stunning losses in November, Democrats are coming to a troubling conclusion. The party didn’t just lose among rural white voters on Election Day, it may have failed to capture them in its pre-election polling as well.

Many pollsters and strategists believe that rural white voters, particularly those without college degrees, eluded the party’s polling altogether — and their absence from poll results may have been both a cause and a symptom of Donald Trump’s upset victory over Hillary Clinton in several states. CONT.

Steven Shepard, Politico

What If the Health-Care Collapse Saves Trump’s Presidency?

… With the failure of the repeal-and-replace effort, Trump—despite his own best efforts—unwittingly rescued himself from the passage of a hugely unpopular bill that would have hurt his own voters most. In a broader sense, Congress’s fractiousness saved Trump from having to follow through on an impossible campaign promise to repeal Obamacare, replace it with a conservative alternative, and expand coverage. Looking forward, post-health-care tension threatens to drive a wedge between Trump and Paul Ryan’s agenda, which is in many ways anathema to the Trump coalition. CONT.

David A. Graham, The Atlantic

Zika Virus Not a Worry to Americans

Fewer than one in 10 Americans believe it is likely that they will get the Zika virus. This is in contrast to previous polls in which more Americans believed they were likely to get Ebola or the swine flu, two other high-profile viruses. CONT.

Art Swift & Steve Ander, Gallup