Is Trump Getting A Convention Bump?

Polls taken during and after the Republican National Convention, which concluded on Thursday in Cleveland, generally show Donald Trump continuing to gain ground on Hillary Clinton, making for a close national race. But it’s customary for candidates to receive a “bounce” in the polls after their convention. There’s not yet enough evidence to come to firm conclusions about the size of Trump’s convention bounce, but the initial data suggests that a small-to-medium bounce is more likely than a large one. CONT.

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

The D.N.C.’s Unscheduled Events

Special guest Ted Cruz … Millennial translators … Creative writing with Elizabeth Warren … CONT.

Brian McFadden, The Strip, New York Times

Brian McFadden (NYT)

Brian McFadden (NYT)

The Latino Electorate and the Republican National Convention

Throughout last week’s Republican Party National Convention in Cleveland, Latino Victory Project, Latino Decisions, and Fusion released daily poll results assessing how Latino voters were reacting to the convention. …

Collectively, the results … underscore the degree to which the Republican Party and the party’s presidential nominee are repelling Latino voters and how this was made worse by the events in Cleveland. CONT.

David Damore, Latino Decisions

Hillary Clinton Picks Tim Kaine, Betting She Can Beat Trump Without A Splashy VP

Hillary Clinton chose Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia as her running mate on Friday, making a prototypical Clinton decision that adds a safe politician to her ticket. Kaine might provide a marginal electoral benefit in his home state, but in choosing him, Clinton is making the bet that she doesn’t need a splashy running mate to beat Donald Trump. …

The one positive way vice presidential picks can matter is by providing a boost to the presidential candidate in the running mate’s home state. While there’s some debate over how big that bounce can be, it’s probably, on average, a little more than 2 percentage points. You can see this in the chart below, which shows how the home state of the vice presidential nominees voted versus the nation as a whole in elections since 1920 before and after they were on the ticket. CONT.

Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight

Clinton-Kaine: A Not-So Surprising Ticket

If someone had told us at the start of this election cycle that the Democratic presidential nominee would be Hillary Clinton, and that she would choose Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia as her running mate, we would have said that would be… very, very plausible. …

In light of the Kaine pick and Trump’s potential difficulties in the Old Dominion, we’re moving Virginia from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic in our Electoral College ratings. If Trump has a path to victory, we don’t see Virginia — which voted closest to the national average in both 2008 and 2012 but appears to be trending Democratic at the presidential level — as a part of it unless he ends up winning a convincing national victory. CONT.

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik & Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Will Tim Kaine deliver Virginia (and Catholics)? Don’t count on it.

We finally know who the major-party vice-presidential nominees are – Sen. Timothy M. Kaine of Virginia and Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana. Not surprisingly, much “veepstakes” speculation leading up to these announcements centered on the usual factors considered to be electorally advantageous: geography and demography.

But much of what you’ve been told about the importance of those usual factors is wrong. Based upon the available empirical evidence, it’s not at all clear that these candidate characteristics will have a significant effect on voters. CONT.

Kyle C. Kopko & Christopher J. Devine, The Monkey Cage

Economic Hardship and Favorable Views of Trump

Donald Trump, the Republican Party presidential nominee, has aggressively attacked trade and immigration in his campaign speeches, claiming globalization “has left millions of our workers with nothing but poverty and heartache.” This rhetoric, and the weakness of the U.S. economy in recent years, has led many to conclude that his supporters are primarily motivated by economic hardships related to foreign competition.

But an analysis of Gallup Daily tracking survey data from more than 70,000 Americans interviewed between July 2015 and June 2016 who were asked their opinion of Trump finds that the economics of Trump’s support are not so clear-cut. CONT.

Jonathan Rothwell, Gallup

Don’t Pay Too Much Attention to Polls for a While

Donald Trump officially became the Republican party’s nominee Thursday night, and on Monday, the Democratic convention begins in Philadelphia. In the coming weeks, you can expect lots of polls — and headlines — suggesting new insight into the state of the presidential race.

With some caveats, our advice is: Don’t pay too much attention to them. CONT.

Josh Katz & Kevin Quealy, New York Times

Obama Averages 50.9% Job Approval in 30th Quarter

President Barack Obama averaged 50.9% job approval during his 30th quarter in office, which began on April 20 and ended on July 19. This is up from a 49.5% average in his 29th quarter and 46.6% during his 28th quarter. CONT.

Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup

Americans’ Satisfaction With U.S. Drops Sharply

Americans’ satisfaction with the way things are going in the U.S. dropped 12 percentage points in the past month, amid high-profile police killings of black men and mass shootings of police. Currently, 17% of Americans are satisfied with the state of affairs in the U.S. CONT.

Art Swift, Gallup