Wishbone teen polling app has 3.1 million users

For the first time, Santa Monica technology company Science Inc. has deemed one of its nearly 20 apps a hit. …

On Wednesday, Science deemed a polling app it launched in March called Wishbone a success, based on its ability to attract 3.1 million monthly users, mostly girls. It’s also generating revenue from ads. CONT.

Paresh Dave, Los Angeles Times

A Struggling Jeb Bush May Lean on George W. in South Carolina

With Jeb Bush struggling to connect with some Republican activists, his campaign has begun exploring whether to bring in the person it thinks may be best equipped to give him a boost with skeptical conservatives: his brother George W. Bush. …

There has been no recent public polling here measuring George Bush’s standing, but multiple Republicans who have seen private survey data indicate that he is broadly popular among potential South Carolina primary voters. And a CBS-New York Times survey found that, nationally, 71 percent of Republicans had a favorable view of the former president and only 10 percent said they viewed him unfavorably. CONT.

Jonathan Martin & Matt Flegenheimer, New York Times

Americans Opposed to Being Shot Seek Representation in Washington

Americans who are opposed to being shot, a constituency that has historically failed to find representation in Washington, are making a new effort to make its controversial ideas heard in the nation’s capital. …

“When you bring up the idea of not wanting to be shot with members of Congress, there’s always been pushback,” Carol Foyler, founder of the lobbying group Americans Opposed to Being Shot, said. … “But recent polls show that a vast majority of Americans, in fact, do not want to be shot.” CONT.

Andy Borowitz, Borowitz Report

Trump Still Leads in IA and NH, But Loses Ground

Donald Trump remains ahead in the early Republican nominating contests of Iowa and New Hampshire, but his lead has shrunk from a month ago, according to brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls of these two states. …

Meanwhile, in the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton maintains her lead in Iowa, and Bernie Sanders is still ahead in New Hampshire. CONT.

Mark Murray, NBC News

The Power of Precise Predictions

… But when people make non-falsifiable predictions, they feel less accountable. After all, if a prediction can never be disproved, then it poses no reputational risk. That lack of accountability, in turn, encourages overconfidence and even more extreme predictions.

Non-falsifiable predictions thus undermine the quality of our discourse. They also impede our ability to improve policy, for if we can never judge whether a prediction is good or bad, we can never discern which ways of thinking about a problem are best.

The solution is straightforward: Replace vague forecasts with testable predictions. CONT.

Philip E. Tetlock (Penn) & J. Peter Scoblic (Harvard), New York Times

Democrats Find That Anti-Establishment Isn’t Just a G.O.P. Theme

Anger at the political establishment has overtaken the Republican presidential race, embodied in the candidacy of Donald J. Trump. But it is also coursing through the Democratic electorate, fueling the popularity of Bernie Sanders, inspiring liberal challenges to party-backed congressional candidates and spurring activism on causes from the minimum wage to the Keystone XL oil pipeline. …

While alienation among Republicans has drawn more attention, given the fiery language of the race’s front-running celebrity, Mr. Trump, the anti-establishment mood on the left is just as intense and potentially just as consequential to the selection of a Democratic nominee. CONT.

Patrick Healy, New York Times

Another Gun Tragedy. Don’t Expect Much Policy Action to Result

… So what can Americans expect to see in the wake of the Oregon shooting? Probably nothing at the federal level. In fact, since Sandy Hook, support for gun rights has actually risen, according to a 2014 Pew study. The National Rifle Association (NRA), widely regarded as one of the most powerful lobbies in Washington, has recently been joined on its right flank by the even more strident Gun Owners of America. CONT.

Andrew Shell, Georgetown Public Policy Review

Recent polls: Guns

Seeking President, No Experience Necessary

… According to a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, Republicans prefer an outsider to a candidate with experience in the political system by a 24-point margin (60 to 36). People who would never board an airplane piloted by a person who has never flown before, or even used a flight simulator, apparently want to elect as president someone who has never served in public office.

A phenomenon like this doesn’t arise ex nihilo; an ethos creates political openings that candidates, especially skillful manipulators of public opinion, can seize on. What’s happening right now is a reflection of the state of mind of Republican voters and bears close inspection, since it is shaping the narrative of the campaign. CONT.

Peter Wehner, New York Times

Bush, Rubio and Kasich eye one another in the shadow of Trump

The Republican presidential contest is not, regardless of what is seems some days, all about Donald Trump. There’s another dynamic unfolding that has almost nothing to do with the businessman-politician currently atop the polls but that will have a major influence on who becomes the party’s nominee.

This other struggle involves the competition among former Florida governor Jeb Bush, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. History suggests that whoever emerges triumphant in this three-way rivalry will be in a strong position to claim the nomination, though admittedly the past has been a poor predictor of events so far in this campaign. CONT.

Dan Balz, Washington Post

The Week in Space News

Little-known exoplanet already polling higher than Lindsey Graham. CONT.

Brian McFadden, The Strip, New York Times

Brian McFadden (NYT)

Brian McFadden (NYT)