Fewer in U.S. See Japan as an Economic Threat

On the 75th anniversary of the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor, and decades after Japan’s economy grew exponentially following World War II, most Americans no longer consider Japan an economic threat to the U.S. Twenty-four percent of Americans say Japan is an economic threat, down sharply from 77% in 1991. CONT.

Art Swift, Gallup

Promises To Priorities: Allstate-Atlantic Media Heartland Monitor Poll

Americans want to see investments in the nation’s future and are optimistic for the potential change the newly elected Trump administration can bring. …

President-elect Trump, however, will have to earn everything he sets out to achieve. Americans are divided on whether they trust him and Congressional Republicans or Democrats in Congress to develop solutions to the major challenges facing the country. There is also uncertainty over whether he can ultimately build a more united country. One thing is for sure, Americans are ready to see solutions and if President-elect Trump fails to deliver, his electoral honeymoon is likely to quickly subside. CONT.

Heartland Monitor

Most Americans Who See Fake News Believe It, New Survey Says

Fake news headlines fool American adults about 75% of the time, according to a large-scale new survey conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs for BuzzFeed News.

The survey also found that people who cite Facebook as a major source of news are more likely to view fake news headlines as accurate than those who rely less on the platform for news. CONT.

Craig Silverman & Jeremy Singer-Vine, BuzzFeed

In News, What’s Fake and What’s Real Can Depend on What You Want to Believe

… Fake news, and the proliferation of raw opinion that passes for news, is creating confusion, punching holes in what is true, causing a kind of fun-house effect that leaves the reader doubting everything, including real news.

That has pushed up the political temperature and increased polarization. No longer burdened with wrestling with the possibility that they might be wrong, people on the right and the left have become more entrenched in their positions, experts say. In interviews, people said they felt more empowered, more attached to their own side and less inclined to listen to the other. Polarization is fun, like cheering a goal for the home team. CONT.

Sabrina Tavernise, New York Times

New Polling: HB2 Led to Pat McCrory’s Defeat

Today, HRC and Equality North Carolina released the results of major post-election polls conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research showing that the majority of the electorate — including voters that supported Donald Trump and Mike Pence — has in no way backed down from supporting LGBTQ equality. Additionally, North Carolina polling found that the anti-LGBTQ HB2 was the critical issue leading to Governor Pat McCrory’s defeat — the only incumbent governor from either party to lose on Election Day. CONT.

Stephen Peters, Human Rights Campaign

Obamacare is very popular

The media narrative around the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, is badly misleading. If we were to believe that narrative, Obamacare is unpopular. This is true insofar as more people say they do not support it than support it. But, some people do not support it because it does not go far enough in providing a public option or universal health insurance coverage; more people support Obamacare or a more comprehensive system than oppose the law. More importantly, there is overwhelming support for Obamacare’s coverage expansions, even if people have a negative feeling towards the moniker.

The narrative should read that there is a great hunger for the expanded health insurance coverage of Obamacare (footnote: Democrats bad at branding and messaging). CONT.

Tobias Konitzer, Sam Corbett-Davies & David Rothschild, PredictWise

The Case for ‘Normal’ Elections Under a President Donald Trump

What might the next few election cycles look like? There’s a tendency right now to think that the political system in the United States has gone off the rails into some uncharted territory. But there’s good reason to believe that the same rules that have governed it in the past will continue to govern it in the future. CONT.

Seth Masket (U. of Denver), Pacific Standard

Global survey reveals strong support for Geneva Conventions but growing indifference to torture

With fighting intensifying around the Syrian city of Aleppo, a new survey, published today, on how people around the world perceive a range of issues relating to war, indicates overwhelming support in the belief that wars should have limits. It also reveals deeply concerning views on torture and civilian casualties. CONT.

International Committee of the Red Cross

See also: ICRC survey methodology

The politics of the rising American electorate

For more than a decade now, we have been predicting that the changing demographic make-up of our country would change the electorate and our politics and decide elections. Last year we projected that the rising American electorate (RAE) — the rapidly growing group of unmarried women, millennials and non-white voters — “will be the game changers in the upcoming elections.” As we saw on Election Day, these groups emerged as the majority of voters (55 percent) for the first time and contributed to Hillary Clinton’s 2 million vote popular vote lead and rising. CONT.

Stanley Greenberg (Democracy Corps) & Page Gardner (Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund), The Hill

Which was the most accurate national poll in the 2016 presidential election?

An underappreciated fact about last month’s presidential election: the national polls were pretty accurate, on average. (The state polls are a different story.) …

But this begs another question: which pollster or pollsters were the most accurate in 2016? As he did in 2008 and 2012, Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos has tabulated the accuracy of the 14 individual national polls that reported results from the last week of the campaign (November 1-8). CONT.

John Sides, The Monkey Cage