Majority Backs Congressional Fix If Court Nixes Obamacare Subsidies

A majority of voters believe that Congress should pass a law to aid millions of lower-income Americans who could lose their health care coverage if the Supreme Court invalidates the subsidies they receive for living in states that didn’t establish their own insurance marketplaces. CONT.

Carrie Dann,

Why People ‘Fly from Facts’

… As public debate rages about issues like immunization, Obamacare, and same-sex marriage, many people try to use science to bolster their arguments. And since it’s becoming easier to test and establish facts—whether in physics, psychology, or policy—many have wondered why bias and polarization have not been defeated. When people are confronted with facts, such as the well-established safety of immunization, why do these facts seem to have so little effect?

Our new research, recently published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, examined a slippery way by which people get away from facts that contradict their beliefs. Of course, sometimes people just dispute the validity of specific facts. But we find that people sometimes go one step further and, as in the opening example, they reframe an issue in untestable ways. This makes potential important facts and science ultimately irrelevant to the issue. CONT.

Troy Campbell (Duke) & Justin Friesen (York), Scientific American

M. Stanton Evans, Pioneer of Conservative Movement, Dies at 80

M. Stanton Evans, an early leader of the conservative movement in American politics and an author of its central manifesto, the Sharon Statement, died on Tuesday at a nursing home in Leesburg, Va. …

Mr. Evans was the editor of The Indianapolis News, chairman of the American Conservative Union, a radio and television commentator, a journalism teacher and the author of a raft of books, including a defense of Senator Joseph R. McCarthy of Wisconsin in his anti-communist crusade. CONT.

Adam Clymer, New York Times

Iran Nuclear Deal Backed by Large Majority of Americans

Negotiations over a proposed deal with Iran regarding its nuclear program are coming to a head while a new study finds a clear majority of Americans – 61 percent – support an agreement that would limit Iran’s enrichment capacity and impose additional intrusive inspections in exchange for the lifting of some sanctions. This included 61 percent of Republicans, 66 percent of Democrats and 54 percent of independents.

The alternative option, being promoted by some members of Congress, calls for ending the current negotiations, and increasing sanctions in an effort to get Iran to stop all uranium enrichment. This approach was recommended by 36 percent.

The study was conducted by the Program for Public Consultation and the Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland, with Steven Kull and Shibley Telhami as principal investigators. It was fielded with a representative sample of 710 Americans drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel. CONT.

Program for Public Consultation

Economic Confidence Edged Down in February

After scoring +3 in January, the first positive reading in seven years, Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index edged down to +1 in February. The reading last month is still the second-highest monthly average since Gallup began tracking confidence on a daily basis in 2008. CONT.

Frank Newport & Lydia Saad, Gallup

How do Americans view Israel?

As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to give a speech to Congress, a CBS News Poll finds Americans continue to have a positive view of Israel. CONT.

CBS News

A Polarized Court, Weighing a Reversal of the Safety Net

The Supreme Court has become a more partisan institution in recent decades, more closely resembling the other branches of government than it once did. This week will start to show just how partisan the court has become.

On Wednesday, it will hear arguments in the latest challenge to the health care law, a case that has received less attention than the 2012 challenge did but also is of great consequence. Of the 10 million people who have health insurance thanks to the law, the court could effectively take it from about five million of them. CONT.

David Leonhardt, New York Times

The GOP’s Damage Done

I confess to feeling terribly conflicted about the impact of last week’s debacle over funding of the Homeland Security Department. …

Here’s the dilemma: On the one hand, one would be hard-pressed to find a single objective expert on congressional elections who believes there is any realistic chance that Republicans could lose their majority in the House of Representatives in 2016. …

But I can’t help but think that what happened last week is terribly corrosive of the Republican brand and not something that any thinking Republican would like to see happen. So can something look horrible and yet be politically inconsequential? CONT.

Charlie Cook

Millennials: Coming of Age

One of the largest generations in history is about to move into its prime spending years. Millennials are poised to reshape the economy; their unique experiences will change the ways we buy and sell, forcing companies to examine how they do business for decades to come. CONT.

Goldman Sachs

Why the betting markets disagree with the polls

The betting markets, the pollsters, even the voters are predicting the Conservatives will edge ahead by May 7. However, on the latest numbers, Labour are the likely winners. What’s behind this contradiction, and what does it mean for campaign strategy?

I conducted an experiment which throws some light on the problem. CONT.

Stephan Shakespeare, YouGov