Few Have High Hopes for Clinton or Trump Presidency

The campaigning over the past four months has done little to improve Americans’ confidence in the potential presidencies of either major-party candidate. Americans are about as likely to say Hillary Clinton (33%) and Donald Trump (25%) would be a “great” or “good” president as they were in May. More Americans still think each candidate would make a “poor” or “terrible” president than a “good” or “great” one. CONT.

Justin McCarthy, Gallup

CNN/ORC polls: Trump, Clinton deadlocked in Colorado, Pennsylvania

Just one point separates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in two states that are critical to both candidates’ chances of becoming president, according to new CNN/ORC polls in Pennsylvania and Colorado. CONT.

Jennifer Agiesta, CNN

Trump, Clinton Deadlocked in Bloomberg Poll Before Key Debate

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are locked in a tied two-way race for the presidency as they head to Hofstra University in New York on Monday night for one of the most highly anticipated debates in modern politics.

The Republican and Democratic nominees each get 46 percent of likely voters in a head-to-head contest in the latest Bloomberg Politics national poll, while Trump gets 43 percent to Clinton’s 41 percent when third-party candidates are included. CONT.

John McCormick, Bloomberg Politics

Poll shows prez race a dead heat

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton trade their first swings in the debate ring tonight as a new Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald poll shows the bitter adversaries are locked in a dead-even duel, so tight even a slip-up or gaffe could sway the shrinking pool of uncommitted voters and tilt the outcome. CONT.

Joe Battenfeld, Boston Herald

Clinton and Trump will be held to different debate standards, but that’s OK

… Trump needs to show skeptical voters that he’s competent – that he can actually handle the job of president of the United States. Clinton must avoid unwinnable arguments about her honesty, and focus instead on how she would make voters’ lives better.

The Republican’s goals appear considerably easier. CONT.

Doyle McManus, Los Angeles Times

Where The Race Stands Heading Into The First Debate

Whatever arguments we’ve had about the polls this week will soon be swamped by the reaction to Monday’s presidential debate. As a rough guide, I’d expect us to have some initial sense of how the debate has moved the numbers by Thursday or Friday based on quick-turnaround polls, and a clearer one by next Sunday or so, when an array of higher-quality polls will begin to report their post-debate results as well.

But in the meantime, let’s take one more step back and ask our usual collection of 10 questions about where the presidential race stands. CONT.

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

Poll Aggregation Fight

Last week I got into a little Twitter fight with Nat[e] Silver. I tweeted that I am concerned about the FiveThirtyEight forecast, both how much volatility it has and how predictable the forecast is. …

Here is summary of methodological disagreements with Nate Silver (who I find to be a very nice person and impressive data journalist): CONT.

David Rothschild (Microsoft Research), PredictWise

Clinton, Trump in tossup Colorado race; Clinton holds lead in Virginia

In Virginia, Hillary Clinton has an eight-point lead, though that’s down from the sizable twelve points it was last month amid her post-convention bounce. Colorado is a tossup — Clinton holds a mere one-point lead over Trump. In Colorado, in particular, both candidates get negative ratings from voters across a range of characteristics, setting up a debate tomorrow in which each needs to assuage some basic concerns that voters – including their own partisans – have about them, as much as try to win over new support. CONT.

Anthony Salvanto, CBS News

Do Presidential Debates Impact Election Outcomes?

The presidential debates are generally considered the last big opportunity to move voters before the election. They offer rare moments for Americans to do some head-to-head comparison shopping between two candidates on the same stage discussing the issues.

And yet, according to the numbers, the debates have done little to change the fundamental structure of recent presidential races. CONT.

Dante Chinni, NBC

Maine voters appear poised to render historic Electoral College vote split

For the first time in Maine history, voters are poised to split the state’s four Electoral College votes between the top two candidates running for the White House.

Republican Donald Trump has a commanding 15-point lead in the state’s northern and more rural 2nd District, while his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton has an even bigger 21-point lead in the state’s more urban and southern 1st District, according to a new Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram poll. CONT.

Scott Thistle, Portland Press Herald