Trump’s Leadership Qualities Assessed a Year Later

In April 2016, we set out to measure how well each of a series of 12 leadership dimensions fit the four major presidential candidates at that time — Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, Ted Cruz and, of course, Donald Trump. The leadership characteristics were based on Gallup’s executive leadership research program, which has studied thousands of leaders and senior executives in hundreds of companies.

The results showed significantly different profiles for all four candidates.

Now that one of those candidates — Trump — has become president and has been in office for almost nine months, we thought it a good time to update his leadership profile. CONT.

Frank Newport & Jim Harter, Gallup

Public Ranks Children’s Health Insurance, Marketplace Stabilization Higher Priorities than ACA Repeal

Among health priorities facing urgent deadlines in Washington in September, the public ranks repeal of the Affordable Care Act lower than reauthorizing funding for the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) and stabilizing individual health insurance marketplaces established by the ACA, the Kaiser Family Foundation’s new tracking poll finds. CONT.

Kaiser Family Foundation

NBC/WSJ Poll: Majority Want DACA, but Trump Backers Oppose It

A majority of Americans support congressional action to continue the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, but Republicans — and particularly President Donald Trump’s most loyal supporters — want to end it, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. CONT.

Carrie Dann, NBC News

NBC/WSJ Poll: Americans Pessimistic on Race Relations

Seven-in-10 Americans view race relations in the United States as poor — nearly matching the record high, according to a new poll from NBC News and The Wall Street Journal. CONT.

Carrie Dann, NBC News

The Media Has A Probability Problem

… In recent elections, the media has often overestimated the precision of polling, cherry-picked data and portrayed elections as sure things when that conclusion very much wasn’t supported by polls or other empirical evidence. …

Probably the most important problem with 2016 coverage was confirmation bias — coupled with what you might call good old-fashioned liberal media bias. …

But the media’s relatively poor grasp of probability and statistics also played a part: It led them to misinterpret polls and polling-based forecasts that could have served as a reality check against their overconfidence in Clinton. CONT.

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

Trump’s approval again reaches 40% after positive reaction to hurricane response

President Donald Trump’s approval rating has once again reached 40%, while earning high marks for his handling of the government’s response to recent hurricanes, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

A broad 64% of Americans say they approve of how Trump’s government reacted to the recent storms, including two in three independents (66%). CONT.

Ryan Struyk, CNN

Why Trump’s Softening on Immigration Is Unlikely to Splinter His Base

In a matter of weeks, President Trump has twice struck deals with Democrats in Congress that have left many of his supporters flummoxed. …

But the informal DACA agreement with Democrats is unlikely to be the move that splinters his re-election coalition. Partnering with Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi on this immigration issue may make him look more like a Democrat, but DACA is broadly popular, and according to data on opinions of leaders in both parties, it also brings him a lot closer to most Republican elites. CONT.

Lynn Vavreck (UCLA), New York Times

Alabama’s Senate runoff election mirrors the national struggle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party

Thanks to a traditionalistic political culture and modern-day culture wars, public humiliation and scandal have plagued all three branches of Alabama government in the last year. In July 2016, former House Speaker Mike Hubbard was convicted and sentenced to four years in prison for felony ethics violations for soliciting money or business from individuals and companies. In September 2016, for the second time, Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore was removed from office for the rest of his term for ordering probate judges to enforce a statewide ban on same-sex marriages, defying a US Supreme Court ruling. … Then Governor Robert Bentley resigned in April 2017, admitting to violations of campaign and ethics laws. And it just gets worse. CONT.

Andrée E. Reeves (U. of Alabama in Huntsville), LSE USAPP

Divided Democratic Party Debates Its Future as 2020 Looms

… On the surface, the Democratic Party has been united and energized by its shared disgust for Trump. But dig an inch deeper and it’s clear that the party is divided, split on issues including free trade, health care, foreign affairs and Wall Street. They even disagree over the political wisdom of doing deals with Trump.

Every party cast out of power endures a period of soul-searching. But the Democrats’ dilemma was unimaginable even a year ago, when Clinton seemed to be coasting toward the White House and demographic change fueled dreams of a permanent national majority. Now, eight months into the Trump presidency, the party looks to face its toughest odds since Ronald Reagan won 49 states in 1984. CONT.

Philip Elliott, Time

Democrats’ Confidence in Mass Media Rises Sharply From 2016

Democrats’ trust and confidence in the mass media to report the news “fully, accurately and fairly” has jumped from 51% in 2016 to 72% this year — fueling a rise in Americans’ overall confidence to 41%. Independents’ trust has risen modestly to 37%, while Republicans’ trust is unchanged at 14%. CONT.

Art Swift, Gallup