Clinton Probably Finished Off Trump Last Night

I’m not sure I need to tell you this, but Hillary Clinton is probably going to be the next president. It’s just a question of what “probably” means.

Clinton went into the final presidential debate on Wednesday with a lead of about 7 percentage points over Donald Trump. And according to the only two scientific polls we’ve seen, voters thought that Clinton won the debate. …

There are less than three weeks left in the campaign, and there are no more guaranteed opportunities for Trump or Clinton to command a huge public audience, as they do at the conventions and the debates (although, they’ll get plenty of attention, of course). CONT.

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

New Electoral College Ratings Favor Clinton

With less than three weeks to go in election 2016 it is clear that Trump has abandoned any precept of fighting for persuadable voters. Instead, as he showed in every debate including the third and final one last night, Trump is all about stoking and stroking his base. Polling since the first debate has shown an unmistakable pattern – Clinton has been climbing and Trump has been falling – even in states once considered safely red like Arizona and Georgia.

Given these factors, we are moving a number of states in our Electoral College ratings – all in favor of Clinton. CONT.

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report

Clinton Maintains Double-digit Lead over Trump

With only three weeks remaining in the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton maintains a double-digit lead over Donald Trump among likely voters (51% vs. 36%, respectively). Support for Clinton among likely voters has increased significantly over the past few weeks. In late September, Clinton was tied with Trump among likely voters (43% vs. 43%, respectively). CONT.

Robert P. Jones & Daniel Cox, PRRI


With 19 Days to Go, Clinton’s Lead Is Bigger Than Ever

The mist is lifting from the map of the United States and the moment of clarity for the 2016 general election campaign has arrived. Yes, there is still uncertainty about some states in the Electoral College. But nearly all of it comes in states that Mitt Romney won in 2012 or a couple of Barack Obama states that Hillary Clinton doesn’t need to win.

With less than three weeks to go, and all of the debates blessedly in the rearview mirror, Clinton is in a commanding position in the contest to become the 45th president. CONT.

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik & Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato’s Crystal Ball


CNN / ORC poll of debate-watchers: Hillary Clinton wins third presidential debate

Hillary Clinton won the final presidential debate, topping Donald Trump by a 13-point margin according to a CNN/ORC poll of debate watchers, giving Clinton a clean sweep across all three of this year’s presidential debates. CONT.

Jennifer Agiesta, CNN

Candidates’ Images Where They Were in Early July

Although Americans’ views of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump fluctuated during the July political conventions and in recent weeks, the public’s current views of the two candidates are about where they were before the conventions. CONT.

Frank Newport & Andrew Dugan, Gallup

Clinton Has 9-Point Lead as Comeback Obstacles Loom for Trump

Donald Trump would need to stage a historic comeback to win the White House in 20 days as key slices of the electorate drift away from his candidacy, according to the latest Bloomberg Politics national poll. …

Support for Trump among critical groups of voters, including men and the less educated, has weakened in the campaign’s closing days, a trajectory that could translate into a landslide loss for Republicans in the Electoral College and setbacks in down-ballot races that will determine control of the House and Senate. CONT.

John McCormick, Bloomberg Politics

Support for Legal Marijuana Use Up to 60%

With voters in several states deciding this fall whether to legalize the use of marijuana, public support for making it legal has reached 60% — its highest level in Gallup’s 47-year trend. CONT.

Art Swift, Gallup

What constitutes a good vs. bad Latino poll

During a webinar and telephonic briefing discussion hosted by NCLR yesterday, experts on political polling and Latino voters analyzed how the national exit polls and many polls throughout the election cycle consistently miss the mark when it comes to Latino voters – and discussed why that is problematic for good post-election analysis and resultant political and policy decision-making. CONT.

Latino Decisions

Fox News Poll: Clinton tops Trump by 6 points

Hillary Clinton remains ahead of Donald Trump with just three weeks until Election Day.

She has a six-point lead over Trump, 45-39 percent, in a new Fox News Poll of likely voters. Clinton was up by seven points last week (45-38 percent) and by two in early October (44-42 percent). Gary Johnson stands at 5 percent and Green Party’s Jill Stein at 3 percent. …

A large gender gap marks the four-way race, as Trump is ahead by 7 points among men, while Clinton is up 17 points among women. CONT.

Dana Blanton, Fox News