Iowa: Late Vote Swing Led to Cruz Win

A significant number of Republican caucus-goers changed their minds over the final few days of the Iowa campaign – enough to account for the difference between pre-election polling and the actual result. The Monmouth University Poll re-contacted a panel of likely voters who took part in its final Iowa poll and found enough vote-switching to turn a pre-caucus Donald Trump lead into a Ted Cruz win on Monday night. CONT. (pdf)

Monmouth University Poll

Engaging the Millennial Generation: Report from Focus Groups

Millennials are unique and hold tremendous power and potential – economically, socially and politically. To better understand how to engage this generation, Democracy Corps conducted two focus groups in Philadelphia on January 19th, one among African American millennial women and one among white millennial men. CONT.

Democracy Corps

Shkreli Miraculously Makes Nation Side with Congress

In a feat that some observers called nothing short of miraculous, the embattled pharmaceuticals C.E.O. Martin Shkreli single-handedly made the American people side with Congress on Thursday morning.

According to polls taken after his appearance before the despised legislative body, Shkreli’s smug, smirking, and utterly douchey performance had the effect of temporarily transforming members of Congress into marginally sympathetic figures. CONT.

Andy Borowitz, Borowitz Report

Clinton’s Iowa Performance Reveals New Fault Lines for Democrats

… The Democratic Party has historically been described as diverse and disorganized — a patchwork of interests and demographic groups who jostle for control of the party agenda. But after the 2008 Iowa caucuses, it was hard to paint a clear picture of what distinguished the supporters of the three major candidates. In 2016, it’s clearer the candidates attract different groups. CONT.

Julia Azari (Marquette), FiveThirtyEight

New Hampshire Now Least Religious State in U.S.

New Hampshire is the least religious state in the U.S., edging out Vermont in Gallup’s 2015 state-by-state analysis. Mississippi has extended its eight-year streak as the most religious state, followed closely by neighboring Alabama. CONT.

Frank Newport, Gallup

Bernie Sanders’s real problem with black and Hispanic voters

… Sanders has managed to attract an overwhelmingly white voter base that, by all measures, appears excited and convinced that Sanders’s prescription of inequality busting, billionaire -humbling policy will fix all that is wrong with America. The thing is, Sanders’s message hasn’t quite caught the same kind of fire with non-white Democratic leaning voters — voters that form a major and definitive share of the party’s coalition that will become much more important after the New Hampshire primary. CONT.

Janell Ross, Washington Post

Top Clinton Strategist Says Iowa Was a Real Win

After a razor-thin victory in Iowa, Hillary Clinton’s senior strategist, Joel Benenson, dismissed those who are trying to diminish her first-place finish in the caucuses. CONT.

Betsy Fischer Martin & Tammy Haddad, Bloomberg Politics

The Necessary Imperfection of Early Primary Polling

… For those shocked by the GOP results, take heart: Iowa is notoriously fickle, and not even top pollsters firmly predicted a win for Trump or Cruz, despite assumptions to the contrary. And it’d be wise to steel yourself for more unpredictability in the minutes, hours, and days leading up to next week’s primary in New Hampshire. CONT.

Nora Kelly, The Atlantic

Most Americans Say Government Doesn’t Do Enough to Help Middle Class

At a time when the middle class in the United States is losing ground, most Americans say the federal government provides too little help to this segment of society. And as voters begin casting the first ballots in the 2016 presidential election, neither political party is widely viewed as supportive of the middle class in this country. CONT.

Pew

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Arkansas, Kentucky Set Pace in Reducing Uninsured Rate

Arkansas and Kentucky have had the sharpest net reductions in their uninsured rates since the healthcare law took effect at the beginning of 2014, followed closely by Oregon. West Virginia and California round out the top five states with the greatest declines in the percentage of adult residents without health insurance. CONT.

Dan Witters, Gallup