Welcome to the Ultimate Hold-Your-Nose Election

Could you look negatively on a candidate, finding him or her untrustworthy, dishonest, intolerant, even lacking your own set of values or the temperament needed to be president, and still vote for them?

Well, yes, if it’s the 2016 presidential campaign. CONT.

Neil King Jr., Wall Street Journal

EU Referendum: Did the polls all get it wrong again?

While a few of the pollsters got the referendum result almost spot-on, others meant that studying the polls failed to give a clear indication of what the outcome would be on the morning of 24 June.

Many people believed that there would be a late shift to Remain in the final days. And the very final polls to be published gave credence to that view. Clearly, they gave a misleading picture. CONT.

Peter Barnes, BBC News

No Immediate Brexit Effect on U.S. Economic Confidence

The United Kingdom’s decision Thursday to exit the European Union did not immediately affect Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy. Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index was -16 in three-day rolling averages recorded before and after the referendum. CONT.

Justin McCarthy, Gallup

The real lesson for the US elections from Brexit — watch the polls!

In the wake of the surprising Brexit vote in the UK, headlines around the globe have declared potential lessons for the US. presidential election—populist movements across the world taking back their countries, an angry working class rejecting the status quo, and Donald Trump at the center of the same sentiments here in the US.

Time will tell whether any of these prognostications actually prove true, but at least one real lesson for the US elections is already clear—many people (including the media) are caught off guard because they misinterpret polls. CONT.

John H. Johnson (Edgeworth Economics), The Hill

Donald Trump’s big, bold response to terrorism is a big bust with Americans

Hillary Clinton has reestablished her advantage over Donald Trump on dealing with terrorism following the candidates’ very different reactions to the nation’s largest-ever mass shooting in Orlando, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. CONT.

Emily Guskin & Scott Clement, Washington Post

Clinton Leads Trump on Orlando Massacre Response, Trust to Handle Terrorism

Americans overwhelmingly support barring gun purchases by individuals on the FBI’s terrorist watch list — an initiative that has thus far failed in Congress. And Hillary Clinton has moved ahead of Donald Trump in trust to handle terrorism, boosted by her response to the Orlando attack. CONT.

Gregory Holyk, ABC News

Brexit is not just Europe’s problem. It highlights a crisis in democracies worldwide.

Britain’s political system remained in turmoil Monday, virtually leaderless and with the two major parties divided internally. But the meltdown that has taken place in the days after voters decided to break the country’s ties with Europe is more than a British problem, reflecting an erosion in public confidence that afflicts democracies around the world. CONT.

Dan Balz, Washington Post

Texas: Trump Leads Clinton by 8

Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump leads Democratic rival Hillary Clinton by 8 percentage points in Texas, according to a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll released Monday.

Trump is ahead of Clinton 41 percent to 33 percent in a head-to-head matchup, the poll found. CONT.

Patrick Svitek, Texas Tribune

UK: Theresa May leads Boris Johnson amongst general public

The Brexit vote and David Cameron’s subsequent resignation has fired the gun on the Tory leadership race. …

YouGov research carried out since Cameron’s resignation shows the public favour Theresa May for the leadership over Boris Johnson. CONT.

Luke Chambers, YouGov

Hillary Clinton’s Lead Among Nonwhite Voters Surges

Hillary Clinton’s double-digit lead over Donald Trump in the latest national poll is significant, and her standing among minority voters is even more dramatic.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday has Clinton leading among nonwhite voters by the biggest margin yet: 77 percent of nonwhite voters side with the presumptive Democratic nominee, compared with 15 percent who prefer her Republican counterpart. CONT.

Meghan Keneally, ABC News