Trump love?

Newly installed White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci began what will no doubt be a long series of errors, misstatements and outright lies with this whopper: Recent polls, he claimed, “indicated to me … the president is really well loved.”

President Trump is not at all beloved.

As I detailed here last week, he was far and away the most unpopular president we have had at inauguration, at the 100-day mark and at the end of his first six months. CONT.

Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill

Issues Driving the Electorate

In the most recent survey for Winning the Issues (July 5-6, 1000 registered voters), we updated the list of issues and news stories in how they are driving voting decisions for next year’s mid-term elections. The chart below shows how each item was ranked on Election Day, in March, and this week. Economy/jobs remains the most important issue on the list, which is consistent with what we observed on Election Day and back in March. The issue that continues to be a close second on the list is need to get things done in Washington and get the parties to work together. CONT.

David Winston, The Winston Group

Millennials to pass baby boomers as largest voter-eligible age group, and what it means

In 2018, the American electorate will cross a historic threshold that could reshape the political balance of power — or leave Democrats fuming in frustration at continued Republican dominance of Washington.

For the first time, millennials next year will pass baby boomers as the largest generation of Americans eligible to vote, according to the well-respected demographic forecasts from the States of Change project at the Center for American Progress, a liberal advocacy group. That transition will end a remarkable four decades of dominance for the baby boomers, who have been the largest generation of eligible voters since 1978, when they surpassed what’s been popularly referred to as the Greatest Generation (or G.I. Generation) raised during the Depression. CONT.

Ronald Brownstein, CNN

Why Russia Revelations Never Seem To Change Anything

… The Russia story has begun to follow a familiar cycle: A major development or revelation is made public, followed by a flurry of follow-up stories that add new details. Democrats express outrage; a handful of Republicans express concerns. Perhaps a congressional hearing is held. And then the story fades into the background without anything fundamental changing, at least immediately. …

Part of the issue is the sheer volume of news: The constant stream of personnel issues, policy battles and presidential tweets makes it hard for any one story to dominate the headlines for long. But social science research also offers some hints as to why the system may be so slow to change. Regardless of what’s revealed about a president or an election, there’s no automatic process for evaluating accusations or holding powerful people accountable. Change only comes when someone has the political incentives to make it happen — and there aren’t many such incentives built into our system. CONT.

Julia Azari (Marquette U.), FiveThirtyEight

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Increased in July

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined marginally in June (a downward revision), improved in July. The Index now stands at 121.1 (1985=100), up from 117.3 in June. CONT.

Conference Board

From Brexit to Zika: What Do Americans Know?

The latest Pew Research Center News IQ quiz finds that many Americans struggle when it comes to identifying some major political figures, though a majority knows that Paul Ryan is speaker of the House of Representatives. CONT.

Pew

How the Health Bill Could Cost Senators in the Next Election

One of the health care bills under consideration by Republican leaders would take health insurance away from 32 million people over the next decade, creating a cohort of Americans who could be motivated to vote against senators who approved the measure. …

If they pass the bill, some Republicans might put themselves in a difficult situation because many of them won their last election by fewer votes than the number of people who would lose health coverage in their state under the proposed legislation. The comparison shows the scale of the problem some Republicans might face in close races in 2018 and 2020. CONT.

Vikas Bajaj & Stuart A. Thompson, New York Times

Trump Rules by Gut, Not Brains

It’s ironic that what makes Donald Trump so authentic to his supporters is what is keeping him from being an effective president. His supporters love that he is not a career politician, that he hasn’t spent decades working in Washington, that he doesn’t think or behave the way ordinary politicians do. …

Through the campaign, his message resonated with Everyman and Everywoman because he approached issues like they do, straight from the gut, based on knowledge picked up watching cable television. …

But once he moved into the White House, his limited knowledge exacted a price. CONT.

Charlie Cook

‘Thanks, Comey,’ Says Team Trump

The polling analysts who worked for Donald Trump’s presidential campaign had a name for the many Americans who didn’t like him but didn’t like Hillary Clinton either: “double haters.”

Many of these double haters seemed likely to vote anyway, given their long voting history. “They were a sizable bloc,” Joshua Green writes in his new book “Devil’s Bargain,” the first deeply insightful political narrative of the Trump era, “3 to 5 percent of the 15 million voters across 17 battleground states.” …

As part of his reporting for the book, Green got access to internal polls and memos from the Trump campaign, and this material makes clear that Trump’s aides believed one factor made a bigger difference than any other. CONT.

David Leonhardt, New York Times

In 47 states, a smaller part of the population now approves of Trump than voted for him

… Using interviews conducted over Trump’s first six months in office — during which his approval slipped slightly nationally — Gallup determined the average approval in each of the 50 states.

It’s worth noting that in 47 of the states, Trump’s approval rating is now below the percentage of the vote he received. …

The more important factor here is that Gallup’s approval polling samples all adults, while voting results are, obviously, just those people who went to the polls. In other words, a lot of people dislike Trump who probably won’t go to the polls in 2020.

That said, though, there is a correlation between a president’s approval rating and his reelection prospects. Below, a comparison of Gallup’s November approval ratings with the results of a president’s reelection bid. CONT.

Philip Bump, Washington Post