In Iowa, Voting Science at Work

Of the two winners of the Iowa caucuses, who’s the better behavioral scientist, Ted Cruz or Hillary Clinton? To judge from their campaigns’ respective “get out the vote” efforts, both politicians seem to have studied up on recent research in the field. CONT.

Todd Rogers & Adan Acevedo (Harvard Kennedy School), New York Times

Hillary Clinton’s Aides See Path to New Hampshire Win

Hillary Clinton knows exactly what she needs to do to pull off a surprise victory in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, her advisers say. But it is not clear she has enough time — or enough voters open to hearing her message — to make it happen.

With four days to go until the primary, Clinton advisers, guided by a mix of public and private polling in New Hampshire, think that she is running roughly 15 percentage points behind Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Many of these advisers think that the best outcome, realistically, would be holding Mr. Sanders to a single-digit win, which they could then try to attribute to his being from a neighboring state. CONT.

Patrick Healy, New York Times

In 2016, Issues Trump Electability in Choosing a Nominee

Americans are about twice as likely to prefer that their party nominate a candidate who agrees with them on almost all the issues they care about but does not have the best chance of winning, rather than one who has the best chance of winning but doesn’t agree with them on the issues they care about. Republicans and Democrats have similar preferences. CONT.

Justin McCarthy, Gallup

The Way Ted Cruz Won in Iowa Suggests Trouble Ahead

Ted Cruz kept his hopes alive with a come-from-behind victory in the Iowa caucuses this week. But the way he won raises serious questions about his chances later on.

He won Iowa for one reason: He excelled among people who described themselves as “very conservative.” …

The national Republican primary electorate is far more moderate than Iowa’s, so Mr. Cruz will need to attract a far broader coalition. CONT.

Nate Cohn, New York Times

Here’s what the research tells us about whether sexism is hurting Hillary Clinton’s prospects

Dishonest, shrill, and frumpy: Not just Hillary Clinton’s Republican opponents but also media commentators have hurled these criticisms, during this election cycle. And most Monkey Cage readers will recall the fuss about Clinton’s debate bathroom break.

Given such gendered background noise, it is certainly tempting to blame Clinton’s primary losses on sexism — or contrarily, to say that Clinton’s victories mean she has overcome sexism.

But do these gendered narratives affect whether voters cast a ballot for Clinton? CONT.

Nichole Bauer (U. of Alabama), The Monkey Cage

Bernie Sanders Needs A Big Win In New Hampshire

Early primaries are often as much about expectations as they are about winning or losing. Just look at Marco Rubio, who has spun a third-place finish in Iowa on Monday into momentum in New Hampshire because he did better than most expected. That’s why I’m wondering how the press will react when (if?) Bernie Sanders defeats Hillary Clinton in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary. CONT.

Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight

Iowa: Late Vote Swing Led to Cruz Win

A significant number of Republican caucus-goers changed their minds over the final few days of the Iowa campaign – enough to account for the difference between pre-election polling and the actual result. The Monmouth University Poll re-contacted a panel of likely voters who took part in its final Iowa poll and found enough vote-switching to turn a pre-caucus Donald Trump lead into a Ted Cruz win on Monday night. CONT. (pdf)

Monmouth University Poll

Engaging the Millennial Generation: Report from Focus Groups

Millennials are unique and hold tremendous power and potential – economically, socially and politically. To better understand how to engage this generation, Democracy Corps conducted two focus groups in Philadelphia on January 19th, one among African American millennial women and one among white millennial men. CONT.

Democracy Corps

Shkreli Miraculously Makes Nation Side with Congress

In a feat that some observers called nothing short of miraculous, the embattled pharmaceuticals C.E.O. Martin Shkreli single-handedly made the American people side with Congress on Thursday morning.

According to polls taken after his appearance before the despised legislative body, Shkreli’s smug, smirking, and utterly douchey performance had the effect of temporarily transforming members of Congress into marginally sympathetic figures. CONT.

Andy Borowitz, Borowitz Report

Clinton’s Iowa Performance Reveals New Fault Lines for Democrats

… The Democratic Party has historically been described as diverse and disorganized — a patchwork of interests and demographic groups who jostle for control of the party agenda. But after the 2008 Iowa caucuses, it was hard to paint a clear picture of what distinguished the supporters of the three major candidates. In 2016, it’s clearer the candidates attract different groups. CONT.

Julia Azari (Marquette), FiveThirtyEight