Who Gets Into the Republican Debate: Rounding Could Decide

Two issues normally confined to the nerdy world of poll analytics may determine the final spots on stage for this week’s Republican debate.

The ways that Fox News — which is televising the debate and setting the rules — resolves the issues could end up keeping Rick Perry from participating. Fox has said the 10 candidates who have fared best in an average of the last five polls released before 5 p.m. Tuesday will be admitted to the debate. CONT.

Kevin Quealy, New York Times

Recent polls: Republican presidential preference

Despite Unrest, Blacks Do Not Feel More Mistreated by Police

Despite the significant public attention on confrontations between black citizens and police in Missouri, Maryland and New York over the past year, blacks in 2015 express virtually the same opinions about being mistreated by police as they did in 2013. This year, 18% of adult blacks say there has been an occasion the last 30 days when they personally felt they were treated unfairly in dealings with police, which is virtually the same as the 17% recorded in 2013. CONT.

Frank Newport, Gallup

Joe Biden’s Schrödinger’s Cat Campaign

Pundits — bored with the prospect of a Hillary Clinton coronation — have conjectured for months that Joe Biden might run for president, but the vice president has remained on the sidelines. So you’d be right to indulge some skepticism toward the latest round of speculation about Biden running.

But let’s consider Biden’s position from our outsider’s view. Does it make sense for Biden to enter the race? CONT.

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

Recent polls: Joe Biden

Donald Trump: 75% of Latinos have negative view of GOP front-runner

Three in four Latinos say they have a negative view of Donald Trump, and more than half believe that his comments about Mexican immigrants were racist and inappropriate, according to a new NBC News/ Wall Street Journal/ Telemundo poll. CONT.

Carrie Dann, NBC News

Everyone Is Already Freaking Out Over the 2016 Election Polls

It’s been a bad year for polls. They were wrong in forecasting a close vote in the Greek referendum last month, wrong in overstating the Labour Party’s strength in the British elections in May, off in predicting the outcomes in the Israeli election, and off in the Scottish independence referendum last September. …

This is troubling news for the staffers, candidates, consultants, and partisans who — even if they try to deny it — have become more obsessed with polls in recent the last two election cycles than ever before. CONT.

Marin Cogan, New York Magazine

Recent polls: Presidential preference

Marist suspends primary poll to avoid being part of debate

As candidates jostle to make the cut for the first GOP presidential debate this week, the McClatchy-Marist Poll has temporarily suspended polling on primary voter choices out of concern that public polls are being misused to decide who will be in and who will be excluded. CONT.

Steve Thomma, McClatchy

Congress’s Missteps Could Weigh Down Republican Candidates

When the Republican-run Congress convened in January, Senator Cory Gardner, a Colorado freshman, said his party’s task was to show it could govern “responsibly” and “maturely.”

House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell agreed. As Congress prepares to leave for its August recess, accomplishments, along with maturity, have been in short supply during the first 200 days of the 114th Congress. CONT.

Albert R. Hunt, Bloomberg View

Hillary Clinton’s summer slump

This isn’t a glorious summer for Hillary Rodham Clinton.

She’s running for president as hard as she can, rolling out wonky policy proposals, holding town meetings, even talking with reporters now and then.

But her poll numbers are down, especially on whether she’s trustworthy and honest. Surveys that once had her trouncing any Republican opponent (Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, for example) show the gap has narrowed. CONT.

Doyle McManus, Los Angeles Times

The Question of the Iran Deal

And now a quick multiple choice quiz on the how Americans feel about the Iran nuclear deal.

Do Americans A) Strongly disapprove of the deal, B) Reject the deal, but by a fairly close margin, or C) Support the deal?

The answer is D, all of the above, it just depends on whose numbers you use. Polls over the last few weeks show remarkably different results on attitudes about the agreement and one of the big differences seems to be how the question is phrased. CONT.

Dante Chinni, NBC News

Recent polls: Iran nuclear deal

Donald Trump Surges in New NBC News/WSJ Poll

Days before the first Republican debate, Donald Trump has surged into the national lead in the GOP primary race, with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush following, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows. CONT.

Carrie Dann, NBC News