Is There Really A Second-Term Curse?

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The phrase “second term curse” is so familiar that it’s become a cliche of American politics. Whether it’s President Richard Nixon’s resignation or President Bill Clinton’s impeachment, presidents tend to have a tough time during the back half of an eight-year presidency.

Nothing on President Obama’s plate comes close to those historical examples. But right now the White House is defending itself against three controversies that distract the president from the agenda he would like to be pursuing: Benghazi, the IRS and the Justice Department seizure of AP phone records all have the administration scrambling.

Why do presidential second terms tend to be so fraught? [cont.]

Ari Shapiro, NPR

Los Angeles: Wendy Greuel’s Campaign Alleges Polling Bias

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In an internal memo this weekend, Wendy Greuel’s pollster took aim at the new USC/L.A. Times poll and argued the race is a “dead heat” heading into Tuesday’s vote. …

Greuel’s polling team, led by Celinda Lake, argue in the memo that the USC/L.A. Times poll has shown a pattern of “understating the Greuel’s vote and overestimating Garcetti’s.” [cont.]

Gene Maddaus, LA Weekly

Reform After the IRS Scandal? Don’t Bet on It.

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… In survey questions that Conor Dowling and I fielded in 2012 via the CCES and the CCAP as part of work on a forthcoming book, we asked respondents a series of questions designed to assess their knowledge of the legality of various activities during presidential elections. …

Our findings are hardly suggestive of a public with high knowledge of campaign finance regulations, even after Citizens United. If knowledge is a precondition for perceived salience, it should not be surprising that public attention to the IRS scandal is lagging compared to similar previous news stories. On the whole, it seems unlikely that partisan-motivated IRS scrutiny of organizations seeking an obscure tax exemption will give much momentum to reformers seeking to address electioneering among 501©(4)s. [cont.]

Michael Miller (U. of Illinois, Springfield), The Monkey Cage

CNN Poll: Controversies hurting Obama? Has GOP overreacted?

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President Barack Obama comes out of what was arguably the worst week of his presidency with his approval rating holding steady, according to a new national poll.

But a CNN/ORC International survey released Sunday morning also indicates that congressional Republicans are not overplaying their hand when it comes to their reaction to the three controversies that have consumed the nation’s capital over the past week and a half. And the poll finds that a majority of Americans take all three issues seriously. [cont.]

CNN

Can Obama bridge the divide between the two Americas?

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… While there has been some cross-party agreement over the past week — particularly on the IRS where many Democratic members of Congress have voiced their concern with how the agency acted — the general rule of Washington still held: How you think about things depends almost entirely on the party with which you align yourself. …

What’s the practical result of these two political worlds? Combine the extreme partisanship with a series of politically motivated redrawings of Congressional district lines over the past few decades and you get two political parties who are largely preaching to their own base — with almost zero political motivation to do anything else. [cont.]

Chris Cillizza, Washington Post

How foreign voices influence American wars

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Recent research raises the intriguing possibility that Americans’ views about U.S. foreign policy can be influenced not just by the president and members of Congress – the elites from whom the public typically takes its cues – but also by the leaders of other nations and the United Nations.

That might sound bizarre. Would Americans, often portrayed as parochial and insular (freedom fries, people), really take direction about U.S. foreign policy from the accented pronouncements of foreigners? Mon dieu!

But my new book with Matt Guardino, Influence from Abroad: Foreign Voices, the Media, and U.S. Public Opinion, says yes. Under some circumstances, international actors can influence whether Americans support U.S. military interventions. [cont.]

Danny Hayes (GWU), Washington Post

Reason-Rupe Poll: Americans Want Senate to Drop Gun Control, But Oppose 3D-Printed Guns

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President Barack Obama has vowed to keep pushing for new gun control measures and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said the failed gun vote in the Senate was “just the beginning.” However, the latest Reason-Rupe national poll finds just 33 percent of Americans feel the “Senate should debate and vote on gun control legislation again,” while 62 percent want the Senate to “move on to other issues.” [cont.]

Emily Ekins, Reason.com

Scientists agree on climate change. So why doesn’t everyone else?

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Here’s a finding that shouldn’t be all that surprising: Since 1991, roughly 97 percent of all published scientific papers that take a position on the question agree that humans are warming the planet.

That stat comes from this extensive new survey led by John Cook and Dana Nuccitelli, who run the Skeptical Science website. And it builds on earlier studies finding the exact same thing. …

That said, others are doubtful that these “consensus” studies can sway public opinion. Dan Kahan of Yale Law School points out that we’ve seen similar stories in the press regularly since 2008 — to no effect. In fact, he argues, there’s solid evidence that emphasizing the scientific consensus doesn’t get everyone to agree. If anything, it just makes people even more polarized. [cont.]

Brad Plumer, Washington Post

Recent polls: Climate change

Los Angeles: Garcetti leads Greuel by 7 points heading into Tuesday’s mayoral election

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With the election just days away to decide Los Angeles’ next mayor, Eric Garcetti leads Wendy Greuel by 7 points, according to results of a new USC Sol Price School of Public Policy/LA Times Los Angeles City Election Poll.

Los Angeles voters go to the polls on Tuesday, May 21, to decide the city’s next mayor. In the latest poll, conducted May 14-16, L.A. City Council member Garcetti is favored by 48 percent of voters compared to 41 percent for City Controller Greuel. Eleven percent of voters are undecided.

This represents a slight narrowing of the race since the last USC Price/LATimes Poll, conducted April 15-17, when 50 percent of voters supported Garcetti compared to 40 percent for Greuel. [cont.]

USC Sol Price School of Public Policy

Pre-Scandal Polls on IRS, Tea Party

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The Internal Revenue Service’s targeting of tax-exemption applications from tea party and other conservative groups has driven the news cycle in Washington this week. The congressional hearings and resignations have already begun and the word “scandal” is again at the front of the Beltway lexicon. …

Amid the headlines, we took a look at pre-scandal opinion polling on the IRS and the tea party, which shows sizable splits between Democrats and Republicans — as well as some surprises. [cont.]

Dante Chinni, Wall Street Journal