Donald Trump bounces into the lead

The bounce is back.

Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups. CONT.

Jennifer Agiesta, CNN

Clinton Pollster: 75% Of The Latino Vote A ‘Difficult’ Number To Reach

Hillary Clinton’s pollster believes Donald Trump has irreparably damaged himself with the Hispanic electorate — but he won’t yet say the campaign thinks it can reach dramatically higher percentages of its support, either.

“I think 75% is a difficult number to reach. I think it’s possible, but it’s not essential,” Joel Benenson told BuzzFeed News in an interview before Clinton picked Tim Kaine, whose Spanish fluency the campaign believes will help them reach Latinos, as her running mate. CONT.

Adrian Carrasquillo, BuzzFeed News

AP-GfK Poll: Support grows among Americans for stricter gun laws

Americans increasingly favor tougher gun laws by margins that have grown wider after a steady drumbeat of shootings in recent months, but they also are pessimistic that change will happen anytime soon, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. CONT.

Lisa Marie Pane & Ryan J. Foley, AP

Three surprising facts about the protesters at the Republican National Convention

During the Republican National Convention, Cleveland officials put barricades up and prepared to handle mass arrests of protesters. News outlets suggested that protests might resemble those at the infamous 1968 Democratic National Convention.

However, contrary to expectations, the crowds were small (apart from a large presence of reporters). And perhaps more surprisingly, the demonstrators who were there were not necessarily focused on the Republican Party.

We know this because we actually surveyed the protesters. Here’s what we found. CONT.

Shan-Jan Sarah Liu, Patricia Posey & Kevin Reuning, The Monkey Cage

Trump gets small boost in battleground states post-convention

Donald Trump gets a small boost in support across the battleground states coming out of his convention: he is at 42 percent support now, up from 40 percent heading in, and it now pushes him slightly ahead of Hillary Clinton, who remains unchanged at 41 percent. CONT.

Anthony Salvanto, CBS News

Is Trump Getting A Convention Bump?

Polls taken during and after the Republican National Convention, which concluded on Thursday in Cleveland, generally show Donald Trump continuing to gain ground on Hillary Clinton, making for a close national race. But it’s customary for candidates to receive a “bounce” in the polls after their convention. There’s not yet enough evidence to come to firm conclusions about the size of Trump’s convention bounce, but the initial data suggests that a small-to-medium bounce is more likely than a large one. CONT.

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

The D.N.C.’s Unscheduled Events

Special guest Ted Cruz … Millennial translators … Creative writing with Elizabeth Warren … CONT.

Brian McFadden, The Strip, New York Times

Brian McFadden (NYT)

Brian McFadden (NYT)

The Latino Electorate and the Republican National Convention

Throughout last week’s Republican Party National Convention in Cleveland, Latino Victory Project, Latino Decisions, and Fusion released daily poll results assessing how Latino voters were reacting to the convention. …

Collectively, the results … underscore the degree to which the Republican Party and the party’s presidential nominee are repelling Latino voters and how this was made worse by the events in Cleveland. CONT.

David Damore, Latino Decisions

Hillary Clinton Picks Tim Kaine, Betting She Can Beat Trump Without A Splashy VP

Hillary Clinton chose Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia as her running mate on Friday, making a prototypical Clinton decision that adds a safe politician to her ticket. Kaine might provide a marginal electoral benefit in his home state, but in choosing him, Clinton is making the bet that she doesn’t need a splashy running mate to beat Donald Trump. …

The one positive way vice presidential picks can matter is by providing a boost to the presidential candidate in the running mate’s home state. While there’s some debate over how big that bounce can be, it’s probably, on average, a little more than 2 percentage points. You can see this in the chart below, which shows how the home state of the vice presidential nominees voted versus the nation as a whole in elections since 1920 before and after they were on the ticket. CONT.

Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight

Clinton-Kaine: A Not-So Surprising Ticket

If someone had told us at the start of this election cycle that the Democratic presidential nominee would be Hillary Clinton, and that she would choose Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia as her running mate, we would have said that would be… very, very plausible. …

In light of the Kaine pick and Trump’s potential difficulties in the Old Dominion, we’re moving Virginia from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic in our Electoral College ratings. If Trump has a path to victory, we don’t see Virginia — which voted closest to the national average in both 2008 and 2012 but appears to be trending Democratic at the presidential level — as a part of it unless he ends up winning a convincing national victory. CONT.

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik & Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato’s Crystal Ball