This coming November, a great deal depends on whether white Democrats are becoming more liberal while white Republicans are simultaneously becoming more conservative. If white Republicans and white Democrats are moving in opposite directions, as much current research suggests, Trump will retain a constituency receptive — perhaps even more receptive […] Read more »
Are Evangelicals Obedient to Trump?
Our thinking about white evangelicals has come a long way in four years. While they have been tight with the Republican Party since the realignment of the South, there has long been some independence – if the GOP nominated a pro-choice candidate, like Rudy Giuliani for instance, evangelical elites threatened […] Read more »
Is Biden Gaining Older Voters, and Losing Young Ones?
After impeachment, a coronavirus pandemic and four years of tweets, the early national polls show that the 2020 presidential campaign begins almost exactly where it left off in 2016. … But not everything is exactly the same, and even modest differences have the potential to alter the race. Mr. Biden […] Read more »
How Trump Turned the Pandemic Into Identity Politics
No one really knows where the arc of history is bending these days, but this weekend we got a good look at where the arc of conservative activism is heading. The death toll in the United States from the coronavirus has now topped 40,000 but, egged on by presidential tweets, […] Read more »
The Cultural Realignment of State White Electorates in the 21st Century
At the turn of the 21st century, West Virginians were among the most Democratic state white electorates. Their level of Democratic partisanship was in the top five (along with Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Hawaii) and they ranked above the median state white electorate in terms of Democratic presidential voting. […] Read more »
Pandemic raises the stakes in US’ partisan religious divide
The battle over religious exemptions to coronavirus stay-at-home orders, which flared again over Easter weekend, captures the likelihood of steadily rising tension in coming years between an increasingly secular American society and the most religiously conservative voters, particularly white evangelical Protestants. … Compounding the volatility, these religious distinctions increasingly parallel […] Read more »