As partisans and analysts puzzle over the higher-than-expected turnout for President Trump (nearly 6 million fewer votes than for President-elect Joe Biden, but still high), they are poring over groups and subgroups: White, non-college-educated men. Suburban women. Young Black men. But much of the Trump 2020 phenomenon can be explained […] Read more »
How 2020 Killed Off Democrats’ Demographic Hopes
For years, the Democratic Party has operated under one immutable assumption: Long-term demographic trends would give the party something like a permanent majority as the country as a whole grows less white and more urban. President Donald Trump’s reliance on the politics of racial resentment would only quicken the process, […] Read more »
Exit Polls Point to the Power of White Patriarchy
… A larger percentage of every racial minority voted for Trump this year than in 2016. Among Blacks and Hispanics, this percentage grew among both men and women, although men were more likely to vote for Trump than women. Among Hispanics, the movements by sex were marginal and have held […] Read more »
More Than 80% of Likely U.S. Voters Decided on Presidential Choice Two Years Ago
In a striking assessment of how Donald Trump’s politics have produced a deeply divergent assessment of his presidency, a new University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll of likely voters released today shows that more than 80% of the electorate had already decided which party’s presidential nominee they would support by the […] Read more »
The Election’s Big Twist: The Racial Gap Is Shrinking
American politicians, including presidents, have often sought to exploit the nation’s racial and ethnic divides for political gain. During the Trump era, voters are not responding as expected. The gap in presidential vote preference between white and nonwhite voters has shrunk by a surprising 16 percentage points since 2016, according […] Read more »
Why the GOP hold on Texas is loosening
The huge surge of early voting in Texas’ rapidly growing cities and inner suburbs likely marks the end of unchallenged Republican dominance in America’s second largest state — a seismic shift in the nation’s electoral landscape. Even if President Donald Trump retains enough rural strength to hold Texas in next […] Read more »