… Ms. Landrieu’s colleagues have done her the courtesy of giving her a vote on a controversial issue. It’s just hard to understand why. Ms. Landrieu is all but doomed, and even a successful Keystone vote would have been too little too late. Ms. Landrieu’s problem isn’t whether voters believe […] Read more »
Republicans and the Minority Vote
While Obama has shown an ability to energize and boost turnout with minority voters, this trend of a more diverse electorate started before him and will likely continue after he leaves office. It is simple demographics and actuarial science. This means Republicans should plan for a 2016 electorate that is […] Read more »
Why Democrats Can’t Win Over White Working-Class Voters
The Democratic Party styles itself a fighter for the working class. But a substantial part of that class—the white part—wants nothing to do with it. If we count the white working class as whites without college degrees, then congressional Democrats lost them by 30 points in last week’s elections, contributing […] Read more »
The Demise of the White Democratic Voter
… There is an ongoing debate among politicians, political scientists and partisans of both parties over the dismal support of Democratic candidates among whites. Does it result from ideological differences, racial animosity or a perception among many whites that they are excluded from a coalition of minorities, the poor, single […] Read more »
Why the Voters of 2016 Are Likely to Be Younger and More Diverse
A midterm election has come and gone, and now begins a new round of speculation about whether the Democrats can remobilize young and nonwhite voters in 2016. The question hinges on how much of the growing nonwhite share of the electorate is the result of President Obama’s unique appeal. CONT. […] Read more »
Something Funny Happened In Iowa, And It May Hurt Democrats In 2016
Republican Sen.-elect Joni Ernst easily won her race in Iowa last Tuesday, beating Democrat Bruce Braley by 8.5 percentage points. Her victory wasn’t shocking, but its size was (to everyone except pollster Ann Selzer, that is). The final FiveThirtyEight projection had Ernst winning by just 1.5 percentage points. What the […] Read more »