Since the photo-finish 2000 presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore that introduced the United States to the red-and-blue political map, the struggle between the parties for 270 Electoral College votes has resembled trench warfare. With most states locked down for one party or the other, both sides […] Read more »
Why the Election Is Close, and What Trump and Obama Have in Common
Donald J. Trump is in striking distance of winning the election with two days to go, and there’s really just one reason for that: He’s leading white voters without a college degree by a huge margin. In recent national surveys, Mr. Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 59 percent to 30 […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton Appears to Gain Late Momentum on Surge of Latino Voters
Hispanic voters in key states surged to cast their ballots in the final days of early voting this weekend, a demonstration of political power that lifted Hillary Clinton’s presidential hopes and threatened to block Donald J. Trump’s path to the White House. … While the changing face of the American […] Read more »
Behind 2016’s Turmoil, a Crisis of White Identity
Call it the crisis of whiteness. White anxiety has fueled this year’s political tumult in the West: Britain’s surprising vote to exit the European Union, Donald J. Trump’s unexpected capture of the Republican presidential nomination in the United States, the rise of right-wing nationalism in Norway, Hungary, Austria and Greece. […] Read more »
The Iowa Outlier, Where Obama Voters Go Trump
In an election where a dominant narrative is Hillary Clinton trying to expand the Democratic electoral map, Iowa is a noteworthy an outlier. The Hawkeye State voted for Barack Obama for president in 2008 and 2012 by good margins, and yet most polls show Donald Trump with a slight lead […] Read more »
The Great Democratic Inversion
For decades, Democratic presidential candidates have been making steady gains among upper income whites and whites with college and postgraduate degrees. This year, however, is the first time in at least six decades that the Democratic nominee is positioned to win a majority of these upscale voters. … From the […] Read more »