Many Democrats have believed that a coalition of minorities, millennials and single women would help create a new Democratic majority for years to come. Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign was counting on it. But the “rising American electorate,” as it’s called, failed to carry Clinton across the finish line. It didn’t […] Read more »
How the 2016 Election Exposed America’s Racial and Cultural Divides
The 2016 election exposed an America of deep divides over race, ethnicity and culture — a nation carved into two large coalitions, roughly equal in size but radically different in demographics and desires. … The electorate coalitions in 2016 were similar to the 2012 election, with one major exception: white […] Read more »
Yes, working class whites really did make Trump win. No, it wasn’t simply economic anxiety.
We knew all along that Donald Trump drew his strength from the white working class. We knew this from the patterns in the primaries. We knew this from the nonstop polling conducted over the past 18 months. We knew this from all of the campaign-trail dispatches showing his anti-trade, anti-elite […] Read more »
Epic fail: How a mid-sized error led to a rash of bad forecasts
… While pollsters correctly gauged the sentiment of most slices of the electorate, they underestimated Mr Trump’s appeal to working-class whites. Although it was clear that he would run up the score with these voters, he managed to exceed even pollsters’ rosy expectations for him: projected to win them by […] Read more »
How the Rustbelt Paved Trump’s Road to Victory
Two Americas collided in the presidential race and the side that was genuinely passionate about its champion walked away the narrow winner. Donald Trump, the billionaire populist, mobilized ardent support from the groups most uneasy about the economic, cultural, and demographic trends remaking America. Hillary Clinton, in turn, posted solid, […] Read more »
The Clinton Loss
Even though Hillary Clinton is likely the popular vote winner nationally, Clinton did NOT get what she needed with minorities, leaving millions of votes on the table with African-Americans and Hispanics who were there four years ago for President Obama’s re-election. And, President-elect Donald Trump actually did marginally worse with […] Read more »