… Polls remain our best tool for reading the electorate and discerning important trends, which is why journalists, handicappers, and campaign managers depend on them so much. Entire media companies are devoted to explaining them. But polls are not predictive. They are wobbly around the margins. Pollsters, the honest ones […] Read more »
Why We’re Headed for Huge Turnout
A week before the midterm elections, both parties are filled with anxiety. Like football wide receivers who have been blind-sided one time too many, many Democrats are hearing real or imaginary footsteps—residual trauma from the 2016 election, when they thought things were going so well until they didn’t. Similarly mindful […] Read more »
Exit polls, election surveys and more: A guide for the 2018 midterms
… For more than a quarter-century, no matter which channel you were watching, much of that punditry ultimately derived from the same source: a nationwide survey of voters as they left their local polling places. … But on election night 2018, there will be an additional source of data on […] Read more »
Final Week Fundamentals
The last week of a campaign is the longest week. Most of the polls have been completed. The final ads have been placed. The last lawn signs have been put into the ground (or pulled out by mischievous opponents). Cable TV is filled with inane chatter. And, the campaigns and […] Read more »
What Happened Next Tuesday: A New Way To Understand Election Results
When the polls close on the midterm elections this coming Tuesday night, the country will turn its temporary attention towards understanding what happened. The winning and losing candidates will likely be clear. However, the “how” a candidate won, or the “why” a candidate lost will not be. Analysts and pundits […] Read more »
Democrats Match or Exceed Republicans on Turnout Indicators
In a departure from Republicans’ usual lead on midterm turnout indicators, Democrats appear to be on par with or possibly ahead of Republicans in eagerness and intent to vote this year. CONT. Lydia Saad, Gallup Read more »