Two paradoxical findings from a new Washington Post-ABC News poll offer unique insight into how Obama’s chances at re-election hinge closely on his ability to inspire supporters to get out and vote. [cont.] Scott Clement, Washington Post Read more »
Polls Since Conventions Point to Decline in ‘Enthusiasm Gap’
Why did President Obama get a bounce in the polls following the Democratic convention? Part of it may simply be one of the functions that conventions have long served: to motivate voters who are generally loyal to the party, but who had been paying only marginal attention to the race. […] Read more »
NYC: New App to Help Voters Expose Trouble at the Polls
A new app that lets voters flag polling-place irregularities will be tested at the primaries on Thursday and, if it works well, will be rolled out citywide for the November general election. The program, PollWatchUSA, enables voters to report in real time if they are experiencing undue delays, having trouble […] Read more »
Test-driving California’s Election Reforms
In the June 2012 primary, California tested two important electoral changes: new legislative and congressional districts drawn by an independent citizens commission and a “top two” primary system. The results suggest the reforms produced some changes—in particular, more open seats and more competition. However, there was also a great deal […] Read more »
Obama’s Enthusiasm Deficit Could Soon Haunt Him
… Three demographic groups turbocharged Obama’s 7-percentage-point victory over John McCain in 2008: young voters ages 18-29, Latinos, and African-Americans. Their influx changed the composition of the electorate that year, making it look quite different from the makeup of voters in 2000 and 2004. Whether the 2012 electorate looks more […] Read more »
Introducing LD Turnout Predict
LD Turnout Predict is a propriety model that allows us to identify likely voters with considerably greater accuracy than standard screening techniques. Moreover, the model goes beyond simple classification of registered voters as likely or unlikely, instead assigning an estimated probability of voting to each respondent in a manner designed […] Read more »