… General election polling has historically been accurate because the rates at which different groups in the electorate turn out have been predictable across similar elections. Mid-terms looked a lot like other mid-terms and presidential years looked a lot like presidential years. This all changed over the last three election […] Read more »
Yes, Racism Cost Obama Four Million Votes
As a graduate student in economics, I have used Google search data to quantify the cost of racism on President Barack Obama’s vote total. I compared the rate at which areas made racist searches on Google to Obama’s vote share, controlling for the vote share of the previous Democratic candidate, […] Read more »
Did Obama Lose Votes Because of His Race?
Most observers, with the exception of those who fervently believe in a “colorblind” America, accept the role race plays in perceptions of Barack Obama. His blackness influences supporters—generating enthusiasm for his candidacy—and detractors, from right-wing provocateurs like Rush Limbaugh, to left-wing critics like Cornel West. If there’s still an open […] Read more »
Here’s Why Black People Have to Wait Twice as Long to Vote as Whites
On Election Day last year — and over the weekend preceding it — the airwaves were flooded with reports of endless lines at the polls, complete with photos of voters queued for hours, their faces a mixture of resolution and lifelessness. … Minorities still turned out at record rates, and […] Read more »
Can California’s New Primary Reduce Polarization? Maybe Not.
… Advocates of reform … argue that replacing closed party primaries with a more open nominating process will reduce polarization and its offspring—gridlock and a noxious political atmosphere—by helping moderate candidates. Are these claims about the consequences of reform valid? To shed further light on the consequences of this reform, […] Read more »
Multi-Member Districts: Just a Thing of the Past?
… Many third-party supporters are convinced that Democrats and Republicans at the state and national level collude to restrict third-party ballot access and make fundraising more difficult for third parties and their candidates. Regardless of other ways the major parties reinforce their electoral duopoly, their real baked-in advantage is purely […] Read more »