… This study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter. It then compares the relative effectiveness of each approach in describing the electorate and measuring the division of the vote between parties in the 2014 U.S. House of Representatives elections. Pollsters would like to have a crystal […] Read more »
Explaining Trump: Widespread Government Corruption
It’s been fashionable to make jokes about Congress’ historically low approval ratings, unbelievable incompetence in the government and now, unfortunately, the perception of widespread government corruption. Pundits and talk-radio hosts have a field day with this. So do late-night comics. It’s not funny anymore. CONT. Jim Clifton, Gallup Read more »
Trump Did Not Break Politics
Politics, we’re often told, is governed by rules — basic principles that explain not just what’s going to happen, but what rational candidates and parties can be expected to do. … Mr. Trump is not the first to test the basic assumptions about how politics works and how we predict […] Read more »
Millions of Voter Records Posted, and Some Fear Hacker Field Day
First and last names. Recent addresses and phone numbers. Party affiliation. Voting history and demographics. A database containing this information from 191 million voter records was mysteriously published over the last week, the latest example of personal voter data becoming freely available, alarming privacy experts who say the information can […] Read more »
Americans Evaluate the Balance between Security and Civil Liberties
In the aftermath of recent high-profile attacks on Western targets by Islamic extremists, fear of terrorism has grown while the public remains divided on whether the struggle against terrorism is worth the loss of some rights. In the latest Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll, 54 percent of […] Read more »
10 Factors That Will Determine the Next President
… What follows is an exploration of 10 factors that will probably determine the White House winner next year. Some of these — many of them, in fact — suggest that the GOP should be seen as a narrow favorite. But a few factors, combined with the live possibility that […] Read more »