What AP learned about using online surveys to measure support for presidential candidates

… The AP earlier this year commissioned an experiment to see if an online, probability-based survey could estimate candidate support among both advance and Election Day voters more accurately than the combined exit poll of Election Day voters and telephone poll of advance voters. That’s the dual, and increasingly costly, […] Read more »

Pessimistic or Optimistic? Election-Wise, It Matters

Two-thirds of Americans feel they have little or no influence over the actions of the federal government. Forty-five percent say the country’s greatness is ebbing. As many see voter fraud as commonplace. A third aren’t confident that votes in the presidential election will be counted fairly. And a third say […] Read more »

Hillary Clinton Is Getting Surprisingly Little Extra Lift From Blacks and Hispanics

The conventional wisdom holds that sweeping demographic shifts propelled Barack Obama to the presidency. So here’s a simple question: Why haven’t these demographics swept Hillary Clinton to a big polling lead and a smooth glide to victory? Donald J. Trump, after all, has alienated just about every growing demographic group […] Read more »