Republican Greg Gianforte’s 6 percentage point win in last month’s Montana special election was just ambiguous enough that both sides could find something to like. … Luckily, however, U.S. House elections aren’t the only special elections that have taken place this year. Since Trump took office, voters have gone to […] Read more »
Polarization in state voter confidence
… Lots of people make claims about voter confidence, particularly what causes it to go up or down, oftentimes tying these claims to support for some type of election reform. In fact, the literature on voter confidence suggests that very little in the way of election reform can move voter […] Read more »
It’s time to bust the myth: Most Trump voters were not working class.
Media coverage of the 2016 election often emphasized Donald Trump’s appeal to the working class. The Atlantic said that “the billionaire developer is building a blue-collar foundation.” The Associated Press wondered what “Trump’s success in attracting white, working-class voters” would mean for his general election strategy. On Nov. 9, the […] Read more »
Will turnout weighting prove to be the pollsters’ Achilles heel in #GE2017?
The 2017 election campaign has confounded expectations in many ways, none more so than Labour’s continuing surge in the opinion polls. From an average vote share of around 26% at the start of the campaign, they now stand at an average of 36% in the polls conducted over the past […] Read more »
Just How Many Obama 2012-Trump 2016 Voters Were There?
In the immediate aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many observers understandably focused on the numerous places that swung from Barack Obama to Donald Trump. Because many of these areas congregated in swing states within the Rust Belt and Midwest, they played a pivotal role in Trump’s victory, as shown […] Read more »
Black Voters Aren’t Turning Out For The Post-Obama Democratic Party
… Lower black turnout in 2016 might be explained as a reversion to the mean after that group’s historic turnout for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. It’s possible that Clinton could never inspire black turnout the way the first African-American president could. But even if this shift is more […] Read more »