… Simple explanations are rarely complete explanations, but when a candidate makes many more populist promises than is usual for a Republican, and then wins more working-class votes than is usual, the straightforward explanation — that the promises actually resonated with voters — probably contains a lot of truth. And […] Read more »
The Nationalist’s Delusion
… Less than three weeks before the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump declared himself “the least racist person you have ever met.” Even before he won, the United States was consumed by a debate over the nature of his appeal. Was racism the driving force behind Trump’s candidacy? If so, […] Read more »
Presidential-Gubernatorial Race Splits and Party Voting in 2016
While down-ballot ticket races such as Senate and House elections have become increasingly nationalized–closely correlating with state presidential vote–gubernatorial elections have not followed this path as much. As Harry Enten detailed using 2012 presidential vote and 2014 gubernatorial vote totals, several states went for presidential and gubernatorial candidates of different […] Read more »
Sexual misconduct allegations don’t always affect voters’ decisions
Weeks after allegations of sexual harassment and assault rocked the entertainment industry, the issue is now being confronted in the political arena. Digging into the CBS News polling archives, we find that while the public may be bothered by allegations of sexual harassment or misconduct against a politician, it’s sometimes […] Read more »
Democratic Wave Begins Forming Off Political Coast
In theory, wave elections are very exciting for political analysts and aficionados. They tend to feature lots of upsets, which unfold in cascading fashion, adding to the drama. But in other ways, they are fairly humdrum because there is usually plenty of warning that they’re coming. As in the Morton […] Read more »
Could Roy Moore flip deep-red Alabama to blue?
As allegations of sexual misconduct against Roy Moore multiply and polls suggest he could lose the senate race he once led by double-digits, political analysts offer one cautionary refrain: Remember, it’s Alabama and he’s a Republican. But a look at Moore’s last general election in the state shows its voters […] Read more »