This post gives my end of the year thoughts on the Democratic field. I am writing it so we can all look back in a few months and see how wrong it was, and, indeed, many factors provide uncertainty about what the next few months will bring. Certainly many of […] Read more »
Forecast Fest Trivia Contest
This week, Kate, Harry and John take a break from the face-offs in Washington and on the campaign trail, to battle it out amongst themselves! It’s an end-of-the-year showdown of electoral, presidential, and impeachment trivia. The Forecast Fest Read more »
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Holiday Mailbag Edition
In this special holiday installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew spends a whole episode answering listener questions. The topics range from the best way to winnow a primary debate stage, to who would win if the podcast team went toe-to-toe in a battle royale. FiveThirtyEight Read more »
The Democratic Vice Presidential Derby: Look Beyond the 2020 Contenders
It’s of course entirely premature to speculate on the 2020 Democratic vice presidential candidate. Vice presidential selection depends heavily on which presidential candidate makes the choice, the options available, and the political context in June or July of a presidential election year when the decision is made. The selection is […] Read more »
The 7 Ways Impeachment Could Shape The 2020 Election
It’s November. That means your seasonal depression is settling in for the long haul, the 2020 election is a year away, and the Congressional Democrats are taking the impeachment inquiry into its next, very public phase. This week, some transcripts of formerly closed-door testimony were made public, and televised hearings […] Read more »
Approval of Members of Both Parties in Congress Under 40%
As events continue to unfold in the House Democrats’ impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump’s dealings with Ukraine, 38% of Americans approve of the job congressional Democrats are doing. Republicans in Congress earn a slightly lower approval of 34%. … The public is also largely underwhelmed by some of the […] Read more »