Five Tables That Explain Rise of Trump and Durability of Anti-Establishment Message

To understand why a majority of GOP voters are currently supporting candidates who espouse a populist-heavy, anti-establishment message, you need to look no further than the data laid out below. This is a GOP electorate that is decidedly pessimistic, suspicious of social/cultural change and resistant to compromise. CONT. Amy Walter, […] Read more »

Carson Wins on Personality, Trump on Terror in Bloomberg Poll

Republicans overwhelmingly pick Ben Carson over Donald Trump for having the better temperament to be president, but they have far more confidence in the billionaire than the retired surgeon to take on terror, handle Russian President Vladimir Putin and fix immigration. The latest Bloomberg Politics national poll shows the two […] Read more »

The Big Issues Of The 2016 Campaign

With less than a year to go before the election, FiveThirtyEight’s staff members took a detailed look at seven issues we cover regularly, examining the positions of the presidential candidates and suggesting developments likely to arise before the voting takes place. CONT. FiveThirtyEight Read more »

As New Poll Finds ‘Increased Xenophobic Streak,’ Republicans Heighten Anti-Muslim Rhetoric

As Republican presidential candidates and governors pronounce Muslims and Syrian refugees personae non grata after the horrific massacres in Paris on Friday, a major new poll about Americans’ religious and cultural attitudes provides an ominous look at Americans’ views on immigrants and Islam in particular. The Public Religion Research Institute’s […] Read more »

Why 2016 could be shattering for Republicans

Election Day 2016 will produce a shattering crash larger than anything the pundits anticipate because the revolutionary economic and social changes occurring in the United States have now pushed both the burgeoning new majority and the conservative Republicans’ counterrevolution beyond their tipping points. CONT. Stanley B. Greenberg (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner […] Read more »

On the left and right, voters express anxiety over future

One year before the presidential election, a pervasive disquiet has shaped voter attitudes, with a majority of Republicans pessimistic about moral values and the increasing diversity of the country’s population, and Democrats uneasy about an economy they see as tilted toward the rich. … Those concerns — detailed in a […] Read more »