Elections for state offices reflect state-specific issues, the personalities and backstories of the candidates running for office, and the dynamics of the campaigns. State elections can also reflect trends and circumstances occurring at the national level. This last point is important, given the tendency of many observers to use the […] Read more »
Polls, Politics, and the 2021 Virginia and New Jersey Elections
Two notable things happened in the recent 2021 elections. First, there was a Republican swing in New Jersey, Virginia, and elsewhere. Second, the polls were off in New Jersey, with the Democrat receiving only about 51% of the two-party vote, after being at about 54% in the polls. A three […] Read more »
The Powerful G.O.P. Strategy Democrats Must Counter if They Want to Win
The Virginia election results should shock Democrats into confronting the powerful role that racially coded attacks play in American politics. No candidate would think of entering an election without a winning message on the economy or health care. Yet by failing to counter his opponent’s racial dog whistles, Terry McAuliffe […] Read more »
Lessons from the Virginia governor’s race: Make your best case
Exit political stage, heading to the right. Drew Angerer/Getty Images Mary Kate Cary, University of Virginia I teach political speech writing. My students know that earlier this year I served on a committee that wrote the University of Virginia’s statement on free speech and free inquiry, which stated that “All […] Read more »
Exit polls from 2017 and 2021 show the key groups that helped Youngkin turn Virginia red
Virginia Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin notably improved the GOP’s standing with younger voters, moderates, independents and White women since the last gubernatorial election in 2017. Youngkin’s inroads among these swing voters, seen in an analysis of CNN’s exit polls from 2017 and 2021, made him the first Republican to win in […] Read more »
An abnormal Republican Party was treated normally by voters in New Jersey and Virginia
Tuesday’s election results in New Jersey and Virginia — a big swing away from the party that controls the White House — were fairly normal. And that’s the scary thing. The president’s party generally struggles in off-year elections for two reasons. First, there is often a turnout gap that favors […] Read more »