Virginia and New Jersey Elections in National Context

Elections for state offices reflect state-specific issues, the personalities and backstories of the candidates running for office, and the dynamics of the campaigns. State elections can also reflect trends and circumstances occurring at the national level. This last point is important, given the tendency of many observers to use the […] Read more »

The Powerful G.O.P. Strategy Democrats Must Counter if They Want to Win

The Virginia election results should shock Democrats into confronting the powerful role that racially coded attacks play in American politics. No candidate would think of entering an election without a winning message on the economy or health care. Yet by failing to counter his opponent’s racial dog whistles, Terry McAuliffe […] Read more »

Exit polls from 2017 and 2021 show the key groups that helped Youngkin turn Virginia red

Virginia Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin notably improved the GOP’s standing with younger voters, moderates, independents and White women since the last gubernatorial election in 2017. Youngkin’s inroads among these swing voters, seen in an analysis of CNN’s exit polls from 2017 and 2021, made him the first Republican to win in […] Read more »

An abnormal Republican Party was treated normally by voters in New Jersey and Virginia

Tuesday’s election results in New Jersey and Virginia — a big swing away from the party that controls the White House — were fairly normal. And that’s the scary thing. The president’s party generally struggles in off-year elections for two reasons. First, there is often a turnout gap that favors […] Read more »