One more time into the question about the VA-Gov polls and the election results. I came up with a possible (and speculative) explanation based on the condition of two candidates who were not especially popular among their own parties, along with a sufficiently well-publicized third candidate. CONT. Jonathan Bernstein, A […] Read more »
Unmarried Women Cast Deciding Votes in Virginia Election
On November 5, 2013, Terry McAuliffe won the gubernatorial election with the overwhelming support of Virginia’s unmarried women. Unmarried women, who gave McAuliffe two thirds of their votes, matching President Obama’s vote among this group, were decisive in the Democrat’s narrow victory over Republican Ken Cuccinelli. While unmarried women turned […] Read more »
Victory Is in the Eye of the Beholder in New Jersey, Virginia and Alabama
Tuesday’s election results offer something for everyone. Democrats can look at Virginia and conclude that Republican “extremism” on social issues like abortion, contraception and guns, combined with the deep divisions that appeared in the Alabama 1st District GOP primary results, continue to offer them opportunities for 2014 and virtually guarantee […] Read more »
Virginia’s Election Encapsulates the Problems Both Parties Face
Apart from Republican Gov. Chris Christie’s big victory in New Jersey, there was more to fear than to cheer for both parties in this week’s election results. The outcomes, especially in Virginia, solidified the sense that each party is now operating with more weaknesses than strengths. For Democrats, the most […] Read more »
The GOP Still Hasn’t Figured Out How to Get On With the Tea Party
Postmortems of odd-year and special elections often suffer from overly broad generalizations that push a particular narrative while overlooking any arguments that get in the way. The instant analyses also tend to suffer from the impulse to extrapolate results and divine great meaning, as if they foreshadow the future. I’ll […] Read more »
What Democrats have going for them? Republicans
… Conservatives are already explaining away the Cuccinelli defeat. He was vastly outspent by McAuliffe. He was tarnished the incumbent Republican governor’s ethics scandal. He was hurt by the government shutdown — which was, of course, engineered by Tea Party Republicans. One in three Virginia voters said someone in their household […] Read more »