The media is missing the big story from Tuesday’s elections

The immediate post-election story has focused on the continued Republican problems in the suburbs. But there’s another part of the story that is good news for the GOP, a part that shows our continuing realignment moves in two directions. That story is the ongoing movement of formerly Democratic regions and […] Read more »

Election 2019: Another Win for Democrats in Virginia Pushes State Further off the Competitive Map

Key Points • Virginia moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic in our Electoral College ratings in the wake of a fourth straight November that has broken in the Democrats’ favor. • Gov. Matt Bevin’s (R) apparent loss in Kentucky is more of a personal repudiation of him than a […] Read more »

Density Increasingly Decides State Elections, Too

Tuesday’s election results show how America is continuing to polarize along an urban-rural continuum. But it’s not playing out the same everywhere. Voters on Tuesday gave Democrats a resounding victory in races for Virginia’s general assembly, a narrow victory in Kentucky’s gubernatorial election, and a defeat in Mississippi’s gubernatorial race. […] Read more »

The Suburban Backlash Against the GOP Is Growing

The shift of metro areas away from the Republican Party under President Donald Trump rumbled on in yesterday’s elections, threatening the fundamental calculation of his 2020 reelection plan. Amid all the various local factors that shaped GOP losses—from Kentucky to Virginia, from suburban Philadelphia to Wichita, Kansas—the clearest pattern was […] Read more »