For months, the biggest hurdle for Democrats pushing the House to open impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump was the party leadership’s concern that such a process would politically endanger the members at the far edge of their majority, especially the 31 representing districts that voted for the president in 2016. […] Read more »
If This Is Trump’s Best Case, The Ukraine Scandal Is Looking Really Bad For Him
Sometimes, when a news story is still unfolding in real time, we can’t do much better than to hazard a guess about how it will affect the polls. Of course, we can also not hazard a guess — that is, not say anything about it at all. But given that […] Read more »
Why public support for impeachment may grow
During the course of President Donald Trump’s administration, a minority of Americans have been for impeaching him. Just this past May, CNN found that 41% of Americans wanted to impeach and remove the President from office. But as House Democrats launch a formal impeachment inquiry into the President, that percentage […] Read more »
What Polling Can Tell Us About Impeachment (and What It Can’t)
A majority of Americans have long opposed impeaching President Trump. Whether that will change, and what happens if it doesn’t, are some of many factors that will shape the political consequences for both parties. The risk to Democrats had been straightforward: With impeachment so unpopular, pursuing it would turn the […] Read more »
Why Pelosi Announced An Impeachment Inquiry
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, the crew discusses House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s decision to formally launch an inquiry into whether President Trump should be impeached. How did Democrats get to this point, and what might come next? FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Impeaching Trump On Russia Was Unpopular. Will Ukraine Be Different?
Rather suddenly, we are on a trajectory toward the potential impeachment of President Trump. … A majority of House Democrats had already expressed a desire to impeach Trump over his conduct toward Russia in the 2016 campaign and his handling of the Russia investigation, but the list of pro-impeachment Democrats […] Read more »