With more than 4 million confirmed cases and 150,000 deaths as of August, the United States is failing to control the COVID-19 pandemic. At a time when many nations are reopening their economies and societies, the U.S. is struggling in its attempts to do the same. To examine the early […] Read more »
The Only (Other) Poll That Matters? Exit Polls and Election Night Forecasts in BBC General Election Results
This article examines the role of results forecasts and exit polls in BBC general election night broadcasts from 1955 to 2017. Despite the substantial role played by academics in results programmes, in devising forecasts and analysing results as they emerge, academic literature on election night broadcasts is scant. This article […] Read more »
Rattled by a Pandemic, People Turn to Leaders — Any Leaders
As world leaders grapple with when and how to safely reopen their countries, many are also facing a political problem: how to maintain support as they oversee tanking economies, stifling restrictions and staggering death tolls. … Whether they realize it or not, such leaders have a powerful force on their […] Read more »
Navigating the ‘infodemic’: how people in six countries access and rate news and information about coronavirus
In this report, we use survey data collected in late March and early April 2020 to document and understand how people in six countries (Argentina, Germany, South Korea, Spain, the UK, and the US) accessed news and information about COVID-19 in the early stages of the global pandemic, how they […] Read more »
Iran, North Korea Liked Least by Americans
Of 20 countries rated in Gallup’s 2020 World Affairs survey, 10 receive favorable ratings from a majority of Americans, while an equal number receive unfavorable ratings. Iran’s 11% favorable is the lowest of all, followed closely by North Korea’s 12%. Meanwhile, Canada and Great Britain, at the very top, are […] Read more »
Diagnosis of Defeat: Labour’s Turn to Smell the Coffee
After the Conservatives lost their third consecutive election in 2005, I published Smell the Coffee: A Wake-Up Call for the Conservative Party. I felt that the Tories had failed to grasp the reasons for their unpopularity and needed a serious reality check if they were ever to find their way […] Read more »