The last UK combat troops have left Afghanistan, as polls suggest more than half of UK and US respondents do not think the operation was “worthwhile”. The BBC polls found that 68% in the UK said involvement was not worthwhile, while in the US, 51% said it was not. CONT. […] Read more »
Did the polls lose in Scotland?
Many are looking at Scotland’s independence referendum as a referendum on poll accuracy as well. And the general consensus is that polls failed the test. One analyst called it “a loss not only for the pro-independence movement … but also for the pollsters.” A Guardian column blamed “systematic error across […] Read more »
In Scotland, the polls got it wrong. Or did they?
As the U.S. blogosphere swirls with the arguments about the best ways to go about (or not) predicting election results, Justin Wolfers make a provocative argument today over at The Upshot in the wake of Thursday’s Scottish referendum. Wolfers claims that while the outcome was a “loss” for polling, the […] Read more »
Why Pollsters Think They Underestimated ‘No’ In Scotland
With two notable exceptions, opinion polls released this month about Scotland’s independence referendum vote gave an accurate picture: “No,” a vote against leaving the United Kingdom, was the steady favorite. But pollsters underestimated the extent of “no” support, making this the latest referendum with a voting-day swing toward the status […] Read more »
Scotland’s No Vote: A Loss for Pollsters and a Win for Betting Markets
Thursday’s Scottish referendum was interesting not just for what it said about Britain, but also for what it said about the state of political forecasting. I’m calling it a loss not only for the pro-independence movement — the BBC is projecting a 55 percent vote for No — but also […] Read more »
Betting Markets Not Budging Over Poll on Scottish Independence
A poll published over the weekend suggesting that a majority of Scots will vote for independence Sept. 18 has both tanked the British pound and put the issue squarely in the international spotlight. … But political prediction markets, in which people bet on the likely outcome, are all about evaluating […] Read more »