“Disaster narrowly averted” was the British Guardian newspaper’s view of the defeat – by only 31,000 votes out of 4.64 million – of the far right Freedom Party in Austria’s presidential elections this past weekend. But it is hard to escape the conclusion that varied forms of populism – whether […] Read more »
YouGov’s accurate election polls show our new methods are working
A year ago the polls got the general election wrong. This week YouGov was the only company to carry out polls for all three of the London, Scottish and Welsh votes. Following both our own internal investigation and the British Polling Council enquiry, we have changed our sampling so as […] Read more »
British Polling Council Inquiry Report
The British Polling Council welcomes the publication today of the report of the Independent Inquiry into the performance of the polls in the May 2015 general election. … The principal objective of the Council is to promote transparency in the reporting of opinion polls, and its members are required to […] Read more »
No, Trump won’t win votes from disaffected Democrats in the fall
… Democrats worry that Trump’s focus on economic protectionism and opposition to trade deals could turn Democrat-leaning rust belt states into swing states, giving the Republican nominee an unexpected path to the White House in 2016. We can learn a little from students of Western European politics here. CONT. Charlotte […] Read more »
Can We Trust the Opinion Polls? cont.
… In the final part of a series examining the role of opinion polling in British politics, David Cowling asks if polling will be more reliable in future and if the industry can restore its reputation in the wake of its errors at the last general election. CONT. BBC Radio […] Read more »
Learning from poll autopsies
As polls pour out of early primary states, it’s worth examining just how complex and fragile those instruments are. Recently we’ve been treated to three polling autopsies that illustrate potential pitfalls: two about Britain’s elections and one regarding our own 2014 midterms. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill Read more »