Two recent polls indicating surprising Democratic strength in Senate races across the Southwest underscore how the parties’ shifting demographic and geographic bases of support are widening the electoral battlefield. The surveys, which point to strong Democratic opportunities to capture Republican-held Senate seats in Arizona and Texas, might prove to be […] Read more »
Politics Podcast: Should Ted Cruz Actually Be Worried?
The first major public poll of the U.S. Senate race in Texas showed Republican incumbent Ted Cruz leading Democratic congressman Beto O’Rourke by only 3 points. This week, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team debates whether there’s reason to believe that the race is actually that close. Fittingly, the crew also […] Read more »
About That Blue Wave …
The prevailing wisdom suggests that there will be a Democratic wave election in 2018. In a manner that suggests that little was learned from the 2016 primary or general elections, pundits and analysts seem so committed to this narrative that they promote it even when the data point in the […] Read more »
Politics Podcast: Does Trump’s Mood Matter?
The Trump administration is coming off of a week of (seemingly) ad hoc policy announcements and a high-profile staff departure. So the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team discusses how the Trump administration makes decisions and whether we learned anything from the past week. FiveThirtyEight’s Perry Bacon Jr. joins the crew to […] Read more »
Can Texas Democrats turn the Lone Star State blue?
For years, Democrats have dreamt of turning the state of Texas blue, or at least a competitive shade of purple. Tuesday’s Democratic and Republican primary votes may offer some hint as to whether that dream is any closer to becoming a reality. The idea of turning the Lone Star State […] Read more »
UT/TT Poll: Texas Republican voters remain high on Trump
With the usual disclaimers about partisan imbalance, President Donald Trump’s job approval ratings are holding steady, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. Overall, equal numbers of Texas voters approve and disapprove of the job Trump is doing. Beneath that, the poll found, Republicans are highly supportive, with […] Read more »