John A. Tures, LaGrange College After former Islamic State Group leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in a U.S military action, speculation began on whether or not President Donald Trump would get a boost in public opinion surveys as a result. My political science research with my students shows that […] Read more »
Baghdadi’s death won’t save Trump from his political problems
… Most of the drops and increases in Trump’s overall approval rating can be traced back to policy success and failures, not big cultural clashes. Trump loses people when he shuts down the government or pushes unpopular legislation — and he may gain support when he takes out prominent foreign […] Read more »
What Should Senate Republicans Do About Impeachment?
What is the savviest political strategy on impeachment for Republicans in the Senate? In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew tries to answer that question in a new edition of FiveThirtyEight Debate. Each member of the team was assigned a position and then tried to poke holes […] Read more »
Why Trump may not see a sustained political boost from Baghdadi’s death
… We have a recent moment that seems as though it should provide some useful guidance on this question: the 2011 raid that resulted in the death of 9/11 mastermind Osama bin Laden. President Barack Obama’s approval rating rose seven points over the course of a week, driven in part […] Read more »
Americans Equally Worried About Mass Shooting and Terrorism
As mass shootings and acts of terrorism have increased in the U.S. and are even tied together in some high-profile incidents, Americans are now equally worried that they or a family member will be a victim of each. Similar slim majorities of Americans are not worried that they or a […] Read more »
How extremist conspiracy theories about immigration and demographic change can fuel violence
The recent series of shootings and attempted bombings across the globe show how fears about racial and ethnic change can motivate violence. In El Paso, a gunman killed twenty-two and injured twenty-four others. He appears to have been motivated by the belief that there is an active plot to exterminate […] Read more »