No, disgruntled primary losers won’t vote for the other party in November

… Some scholars say hotly contested primaries encourage voters to support the final candidate in a general election; others say that bitter partisans may support alternative candidates. To explore this question, we looked at vote choice in the 2008 presidential election, which, as is true in 2016, had no incumbent […] Read more »

Despite Bernie Sanders’ Crowds, Hillary Clinton Ahead In Oregon

A new poll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump headed toward primary victories next week in Oregon — and suggests Clinton holds a strong lead over Trump as both pivot toward the November general election. DHM Research surveyed 901 likely Oregon voters between May 6 and May 9 for OPB […] Read more »

Wrapping up a Wild Ride: A 2016 Exit Poll Review

What was that all about? “That” is the wild ride of the 2016 primary season, and ABC News exit polls conducted across the primaries provide illuminating answers. For Republicans, it was about demand for an outsider fueled by profound disenchantment with economic and political conditions. For the Democrats, a deep […] Read more »

Global Warming and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election

… Fewer than half of any candidate’s supporters are aware that virtually all climate scientists have concluded human-caused global warming is happening. However, supporters of the Democratic candidates are the most likely to think at least 90% of climate scientists are convinced (Sanders: 38%, Clinton: 27%). Far fewer supporters of […] Read more »