You have undoubtedly heard that primary polls aren’t necessarily very predictive far from an election. With just a month to go until the Iowa caucuses, I’m writing to tell you that … it’s still true. Yes, even with that little time left until Iowa, the first contest of the 2016 […] Read more »
Trump dominates GOP field heading into 2016
Donald Trump seems set to end 2015 as the dominant force in the race for next year’s Republican nomination for president, with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz now a clear — yet distant — second after a strong debate performance, a new CNN/ORC poll released on Wednesday has found. CONT. Jennifer […] Read more »
State of election markets: Some meaningful movement in the Republican primary
There was some meaningful movement in the Republican primary this week as (market) front-runner Marco Rubio failed to consolidate support for yet another week and (market) second-place Ted Cruz continued to gain in the polls Iowa, the crucial test of the non-establishment. CONT. David Rothschild, PredictWise Read more »
CBS/YouGov online poll: Ted Cruz leads in Iowa; Donald Trump stays atop NH, SC
Donald Trump, the national front-runner, keeps his big lead in two of the three early states of New Hampshire and South Carolina, but now Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has moved past Trump into a lead of his own in Iowa. CONT. CBS News Read more »
Outsider Sentiment Leaves Its Mark on 2016 Races
Demand for an outsider versus a candidate with political experience is the driving feature of the 2016 presidential campaign to date, propelling Donald Trump in the GOP primary contest as well as buoying his support in a potential general election match-up against Hillary Clinton. CONT. Chad Kiewiet de Jonge, ABC […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Trump jumps, Cruz climbs, Carson sinks in GOP race
Donald Trump, a candidate even Republicans once considered a side show, increases his lead yet again in the nomination race, according to the latest Fox News national poll. The poll also finds Ted Cruz ticking up, Marco Rubio slipping, and Ben Carson dropping. CONT. Dana Blanton, Fox News Read more »