On this week’s podcast Keiran discusses the initial BPC Polling Inquiry findings with Mike Smithson. … Keiran and Mike also discuss the U.S. presidential race. Keiran argues we are underestimating Trump and Mike explains why he is no longer backing Ted Cruz in the betting markets. CONT. Polling Matters Read more »
Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders hold solid leads in Iowa, CNN/ORC poll finds
Donald Trump holds a commanding lead in Iowa as Sen. Bernie Sanders takes control of the Democratic race in the critical first-in-the-nation voting state, according to a new CNN/ORC poll released Thursday. CONT. Tal Kopan, CNN Read more »
The Republican Establishment Is Losing at Its Own Game
… The G.O.P. establishment is at a disadvantage against outsiders across nearly every dimension of primary strength, even on the matters where the establishment usually has an edge, like fund-raising, media coverage and support from moderate voters in blue states. What’s even more remarkable is that the party’s weakness comes […] Read more »
For the Republicans, It’s More Than Just Insiders Versus Outsiders
Republicans who hope that Donald Trump or Ted Cruz will not be their party’s presidential nominee might find some relief from The Four Faces of the Republican Party: The Fight for the 2016 Presidential Nomination, an excellent new book by Henry Olsen and Dante Scala. But if Trump and Cruz […] Read more »
Cruz, Carson, Huckabee Lead Field Among Very Conservative in GOP
Ted Cruz, Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee are easily the most popular presidential candidates with Republicans who describe their political ideology as “very conservative.” CONT. Andrew Dugan, Gallup Read more »
CNN/WMUR Poll: Trump leads, Cruz climbs in New Hampshire
Donald Trump holds a 20-point lead in the New Hampshire Republican primary, a new CNN/WMUR poll shows. Behind him, there’s still a scrum for second place — with support for No. 2, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, on the rise. CONT. Eric Bradner, CNN Read more »