Donald Trump has overtaken Ted Cruz in the final days before Iowa’s caucuses, with the fate of the race closely tied to the size of Monday evening’s turnout, especially among evangelical voters and those attending for the first time, a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows. CONT. John McCormick, […] Read more »
Trump v. Rubio for GOP Nomination
It is looking increasingly like Donald Trump will win the race for the non-establishment candidate and Marco Rubio is poised to seize the race for the establishment candidate (although there is still a lot more uncertainty there). This seems like a shocking turn of events over the last few days, […] Read more »
Four Roads Out Of Iowa For Republicans
… The dominoes will begin falling after the Iowa caucuses Monday night. It seems to me there are four basic narratives that could emerge from the state. (By “narratives,” I mean how the media, Republican party elites and the other candidates will interpret the results. Be warned: How the media […] Read more »
In the Iowa caucuses, look for results that surprise you
… The Iowa Caucuses on Monday night can be expected to provide some clarity in the contests for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, but don’t expect too much. One way to look at the results is to think of what outcomes would surprise you, and change your assumptions about […] Read more »
Republicans and Democrats Brace for a Reality Check
American presidential campaigns have never been so thoroughly examined, probed and measured as in this election cycle. And the pollsters and pundits who cover them are about to get a reality check. The Iowa caucuses on Monday and the New Hampshire primary eight days later will begin to do what […] Read more »
What Would The Republican Race Look Like Without Trump?
If the debate in South Carolina two weeks ago represented the Republican primary in microcosm, this one was like a randomized control trial: What would the GOP primary look like without Donald Trump? CONT. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Read more »