Demand for an outsider and vast support for a ban on Muslims entering the country helped Donald Trump to victory in the South Carolina Republican primary. He was pulled back, all the same, by values voters and strong conservatives – setting the stage for epic battles ahead. Hillary Clinton, for […] Read more »
How to Watch the Contests in Nevada and South Carolina
After two contests in mostly white and rural Iowa and New Hampshire, the presidential primaries finally turn today to contests that are more representative of the national electorate. For the Democrats, Nevada is the first contest with a meaningful nonwhite and urban population. South Carolina offers an ideologically balanced contest […] Read more »
Who Will Win the Nominations? Lessons From Iowa and New Hampshire
… Despite their small populations, tiny numbers of national convention delegates and racially homogeneous electorates, the national parties continue to allow Iowa and New Hampshire to exert an outsized influence on the selection of the presidential nominees by kicking off the primary and caucus season. Because they go first and […] Read more »
‘Unfavorable’ Signs for Ted Cruz in South Carolina
The Ted Cruz campaign has made it very clear how it believes its candidate can win the nomination: by unifying the party’s ideologically consistent and self-described “very conservative” base with the somewhat more populist, evangelical voters who make up the party’s rank and file in the South. … The relatively […] Read more »
Ted Cruz’s Alamo?
… For local and national conservatives skeptical that Trump truly shares their beliefs, the final hours before Saturday’s traditionally pivotal South Carolina Republican primary feels something like the Alamo. All recognize that a Trump victory in this bellwether conservative state could provide him a clear pathway to the GOP nomination—despite […] Read more »
New poll shows that black voters really aren’t ‘Feeling the Bern’
Bernie Sanders has had strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, but he is facing an important challenge: appealing to minority voters. … Our new research confirms what many Sanders supporters have feared: Black voters have substantially more favorable feelings about his opponent, Hillary Clinton. Our data are unusual: a […] Read more »